Ivory Coast's Power Struggle: A Test for African Democracy

A troika of Presidents from the West African nations of Benin, Cape Verde and Sierra Leone met with Ivory Coast's incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo on Tuesday in the hopes of avoiding military intervention to resolve a postelectoral dispute that has left the country with two Presidents. In a situation that analysts say presents a key test for regional groups and leaders, Africa is eschewing the help of traditional international mediators and trying to solve this problem on its own.

Dispatched by the regional group ECOWAS, or the Economic Community of West African States, the three leaders arrived bearing the latest array of diplomatic measures aimed at persuading Gbagbo to step down: political asylum, diplomatic immunity and deals that could ensure him a future in Ivorian politics. Once seen as a savior figure following 11 years of opposing the kleptocratic postindependence President Felix Houphouet-Boigny, Gbagbo is now refusing to relinquish power a month after the Constitutional Court handed him a flawed election victory that the international community unanimously doesn't recognize, saying it should go instead to his opponent Alassane Ouattara. (See pictures of Ivory Coast's contested election.)

Following a hastily organized Christmas Eve reunion, ECOWAS says it is giving "a final warning" to Gbagbo, "with the firm position that if [he] continues to hold on to power illegally, ECOWAS will have no choice but to remove him forcefully."

Gbagbo's camp is spinning the talk of military intervention as a declaration of "war" on Ivory Coast backed by Western powers. State-controlled television repeatedly shows Gbagbo supporters at rallies waving placards that protest against Western intervention; "Gbagbo is not a district of France," reads one, referring to Ivory Coast's notoriously fractious history with its former colonial ruler. (See how Ivory Coast is trying to break a bloody cycle.)

But while ECOWAS has taken the lead with the unusually strong position of openly criticizing an incumbent President, the group will be hoping that the threat of force alone is enough to persuade Gbagbo to step down. "Whether at this point all other avenues have been explored to justify military intervention is one thing," says Rolake Akinola, analyst at London-based consultancy Vox Frontier. "Talking of military intervention but not actually using it can in fact increase the security headache."

Gbagbo's popular support may be dwindling as he cracks down on the population in his bid to cling to power. In the commercial capital of Abidjan, armed assailants kick their way into the houses of Ouattara supporters each night. Gunshots can be heard, and the next day neighbors desperately trawl the morgues looking for the bodies of their friends. (See more on Ivory Coast's disputed election.)

But using ECOWAS' armed forces could backfire and provoke a resurgence in support for Gbagbo. Any military interventionists will have to grapple with delicate issues, most importantly securing their objective quickly and with minimal bloodshed — neither of which is guaranteed. Diplomats say a majority of soldiers voted for Ouattara, but the top brass currently remain loyal to Gbagbo.

Ivorian-born Nigerian Chidi (who asked to be identified only by his first name) was among a handful of demonstrators who gathered on Dec. 27 to protest against military intervention. "Why should one African brother kill another?" he asks, standing in front of the Nigerian embassy in Abidjan. One of a million Ivorian-born Nigerians in Ivory Coast, Chidi says he fears reprisals against the Nigerian community in the event of a military solution — Africa's largest country has provided the majority of soldiers in most military missions by ECOWAS. (Comment on this story.)

It's unclear which state would take the lead in this case; Nigeria is facing its own security crises, from the struggle to quell radical Islamic sects to an upcoming election in April. Bordering Liberia and Ghana are already dealing with an influx of some 14,000 refugees from Ivory Coast, says the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees. And troops from Sahelian neighbors Mali and Burkina Faso could further complicate matters, given that Ivory Coast's 2002 civil war was supported by northern citizens — many with Burkinabe and Malian origins — who felt marginalized by southern-led governments.

The unity of the 16 countries behind the facade of ECOWAS will be tested over the coming weeks — across the continent leaders are already suggesting contrasting approaches. Former South African President Thabo Mbeki has called for a "consensual" solution, while Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga says force is the most "effective" method.

But as the U.N. reports at least 173 dead, more than 200 wounded and almost 500 detained so far, whether Gbagbo chooses to step down or is successfully removed by force, the troublesome results of Ivory Coast's presidential election point to deeper issues across the continent. "It's not that democracy doesn't work in Africa," says South African Ambassador Zodwa Lallie. "It's the best thing we have. But we can't overlay it without considering the structures that already exist. Africans must know that your voice is your own, your vote is your own — not your tribe's, your chief's or anyone else's.

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2039916,00.html#ixzz19UDF5THs

Ivory Coast- Analyst, Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Centre

Ivory Coast is different from Liberia and Sierra Leone. It is a functioning wealthy country with a strong army, so a force will meet some credible resistance.

Furthermore, it doesn't look as if Ecowas is capable of putting a credible force on the ground: Nigeria is heading towards elections and may not want to put in troops for that long a time; Ghana has elections in 2012 and Senegal has its own problems with dynastic succession. So the key countries that would have to contribute may not have the political stomach and the temerity.

I would have thought an emphasis on sanctions, bank accounts, no-fly zones, seizure of properties - total isolation on the continent - would have been a first step.

But it looks as if there has been a hastiness to demonstrate that "we can deal with Gbagbo" - and in doing so Ecowas, the African Union and the United Nations have actually closed too many doors that limit their options for engagement and manoeuvre.

Rebel leader’s arrest just one step in fight against impunity in DRC

LONDON, 21 October 2010 (IRIN) - The recent arrest in Europe of a senior Rwandan militia leader is a welcome step in the fight against impunity in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) but real progress in the protection of civilians depends on the apprehension of commanders on the ground, according to analysts. Acting on a warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC), French police arrested Callixte Mbarushimana, vice-president of the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), on 11 October in Paris. He stands charged of 11 counts of war crimes and crimes against humanity in DRC in 2009. Almost two million people are internally displaced in eastern DRC?s Kivu provinces, in large part due to the activities of the FDLR. International and local human rights groups applauded Mbarushimana?s arrest which comes after a long and controversial military campaign to stamp out the Hutu-dominated group that formed in DRC after the 1994 Rwandan genocide. But they suggest impact on the ground - where a brutal campaign of murder and rape allegedly committed by FDLR soldiers has blighted the lives of civilians - will be minimal. ?It is clear from the latest military operations that the FDLR is weakened, and the arrest of individuals in Europe just weakens them even further,? said Anneke Van Woudenberg, senior researcher at Human Rights Watch. ?But will it stop them attacking civilians? I fear not. I think that we?ve seen in the past that it doesn?t have an immediate impact on behaviour on the ground, because there has been this division between the political movement [in Europe] and the military leadership in the field.? Mbarushimana took over the FDLR?s political wing following the November 2009 arrests of FDLR President Ignace Murwanashyaka and his deputy Straton Musoni in Germany. They remain in German custody charged, under the principle of universal jurisdiction, with bearing command responsibility for war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by FDLR troops eastern DRC. ICC allegations The ICC alleges that Mbarushimana planned a series of crimes from his base in France with the intention of creating a humanitarian catastrophe, then extorting concessions of political power from the international community.
Photo: Olivier Nyirubugara/IRIN
ICC prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo said the latest arrest could help demobilize the FDLR?After 16 years of continuous violence, this could be an opportunity to finally demobilize the group,? said ICC prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo in a press release. ?Their leaders are gone.? But not everyone is convinced that FDLR will give up their fight so easily. Fidel Bafilemba, the eastern DRC field researcher for the Enough Project, says the soldiers on the ground care little for international warrants for European leaders. ?Why should this [latest] arrest make a difference that the arrest of Ignace Murwanashyaka didn't make?? he said. In fact, one of the most shocking incidents in DRC?s recent history occurred long after Murwanashyaka and Musoni were taken into custody - the rape of hundreds of women near Walikale in August, allegedly by FDLR soldiers and their Congolese Mayi-Mayi allies. Many recent atrocities attributed to the FDLR have come in apparent response to the military campaigns against them by the Rwandan and DRC armies assisted by the UN peace-keeping force in DRC, known as MONUSCO (formerly MONUC). ?What I fear with FDLR is that they have shown when under military pressure they attack Congolese civilians,? said Van Woudenberg. ?The recent rapes in Walikale are a prime example of the FDLR and their Mayi Mayi allies punishing Congolese people for their perceived support for these military operations against them.? Independent DRC analyst Jason Stearns describes the military approach to date as clumsy and says it has worsened the humanitarian catastrophe in the east. He is also unconvinced that targeting Europe-based FDLR will stamp out the rebels. ?We should crack down on the diaspora, but let?s not lose sight of the fact that in the larger scheme of things it?s not going to be by any stretch of the imagination the key factor in dealing with the FDLR,? said Stearns, the former head of the UN Group of Experts on Congo. ?There are other much more important issues to deal with than the diaspora.? He believes that MONUSCO and others should be reaching out to the commanders on the ground who were not involved in the Rwandan genocide - many of whom are tired of life in the forest and the constant military pressure. ?There has been relatively little outreach to them,? he said. ?We need to find out who the genocidaires [those who took part in Rwanda?s 1994 genocide] are in the FDLR, but we just don?t know. It?s hard to engage in this outreach to commanders if you are operating with this lack of information.?
Read more
Justice still remote for victims of atrocities in DRC
International justice denied
Who?s who of armed groups in DRC
Mixed report card for ICC
DRC army accused of crimes against humanityStearns proposes third country exile for FDLR members found not to be involved in violations of international law and who do not want to return to Rwanda. ?Powerful signal? International Crisis Group?s central Africa senior analyst, Guillaume Lacaille, agrees that military offensives alone will not end the violence and that FDLR military leaders in the field should be given the opportunity to relocate, but within the DRC. ?Those who accept to leave the FDLR could be relocated in a western province of the Congo in exchange for disarmament, rather than accept immediate repatriation to Rwanda,? he said. Lacaille, however, insists the arrest of Mbarushimana and the others is also an important part of the process of bringing peace to eastern DRC. ?It sends a powerful signal that directing from Europe a criminal group operating in Congo will have serious consequences,? he said. ?In the past, leaders of armed groups were led to believe that they could operate safely from comfortable Western capitals. The ICC and the governments of Germany and France demonstrated clearly that it is not possible any more.? Enough?s Bafilemba also sees the new ICC case as a positive step towards ending impunity in DRC, but expects more from the court. That means warrants for crimes committed by all sides in the conflict including the national army which this week came under pressure from Margot Wallstrom, the UN envoy on sexual violence in conflict, who accused its soldiers of murdering and raping villagers in Walikale. Van Woudenberg, meanwhile, is calling on the Rwandan government to do its part in ending the violence. ?As long as the political space in Rwanda is not opened up to the Hutu, the problem of the FDLR will continue,? she said. The lasting solution to this problem of Hutu and their political space is Rwanda and Rwanda will need to open this political space.? Rwandan President Paul Kagame responded to this oft-voiced view in his 6 October swearing-in speech that followed his 93 percent landslide victory in an August election: ??That there is no political space ? what do you mean? The political space is well and fully occupied by the people of this country. And if the people of this country has spoken in such numbers and freely, who are you to question anything they have said? Where do you come from? From Mars?? lc/am/cb

Peace moves in Afghanistan as fighting goes on

KABUL, 21 October 2010 (IRIN) - Talks about peace talks with Taliban insurgents are gaining unprecedented momentum, but fighting in Afghanistan is continuing, with catastrophic consequences for civilians. President Hamid Karzai acknowledges making contact with senior Taliban members and has appointed a 68-member Peace Council, led by warlords and well-known anti-Taliban figures, to facilitate a peace deal with the largely Pashtun insurgents. The Taliban have rejected formal contacts with Kabul and dubbed the process ?futile propaganda?. They have repeatedly vowed not to engage in any negotiations until all foreign forces leave Afghanistan. Ordinary Afghans are suffering the most. The conflict has killed and wounded thousands over the past few years, according to the UN. ?We have kept the peace door open since 2002,? Baryalai Helali, spokesman of the government?s National Peace Programme (NPP), told IRIN, adding that there had been ?some deficiencies? in previous peace efforts. NPP is supposed to implement Peace Council decisions and help reintegrate insurgents who lay down their arms. ?The US war in Afghanistan is now the longest in our history, and is costing US taxpayers nearly US$100 billion per year? Prosecuting the war in Afghanistan is not essential to US security,? a group of American scholars calling themselves the Afghanistan Study Group said in a report in September. Meanwhile, Taliban confidence appears to be growing: ?We inform our Muslim nation that victory is imminent as the enemy is desperately seeking [an] exit,? said a recent Taliban statement. Richard Barrett, coordinator of the UN al-Qaeda-Taliban monitoring team, however, believes the Taliban are ?beginning to look at alternatives to fighting?. Sticking point: Mullah Omar The government has dropped the term ?moderate Taliban? which it used in previous peace efforts: President Karzai has invited all Taliban, including their reclusive supreme leader Mullah Mohammad Omar, to peace talks. However, Washington has rejected a role for Mullah Omar in the peace process. ?I can?t imagine Mullah Omar playing a constructive role in Afghanistan? Our focus on Mullah Omar, from a US standpoint, is based on his complicity in support of al-Qaeda that led to the plot of 9/11,? Philip J. Crowley, assistant secretary in the US State Department, told reporters on 14 October.
Photo: Salih/IRIN
President Hamid Karzai reaches outOmar, who has never been photographed or seen on TV, reportedly heads the movement?s so-called ?Quetta Shura? based in Pakistan?s Balochistan Province. ?There can be no peace or even peace talks without Mullah Omar,? Waheed Mujhda, an Afghan analyst and former Taliban official, told IRIN. All efforts to isolate and marginalize Omar have failed, he said. ?The fate of Omar is a contentious issue between President Karzai and his American patrons,? said Martine van Bijlert, co-director of the Afghanistan Analyst Network (AAN), a Kabul-based research group. NPP spokesman Helali said the government was ready to vouchsafe Omar?s security if he chose to engage in peace talks. Words versus action While the debate about peace talks continues, more than 300 mid-level Taliban commanders have been killed or captured over the past three months in an intensified US-led counter-insurgency operation, according to David Petraeus, commander of all foreign forces in Afghanistan. Air strikes against alleged Taliban positions have reportedly risen by over 150 percent in 2010 compared to last year. There are about 150,000 foreign forces, mainly from the USA, in Afghanistan - more than at any time since the war against the Taliban began in late 2001. ?The Americans want to disrupt and weaken the insurgency and by doing so force the Taliban into peace talks from a position of weakness,? said AAN?s Bijlert. However, while the Taliban have always been defeated in open combat, they have managed to regroup subsequently, experts say. Taliban attacks, including suicide bombings, have risen sharply over the past three years, according to UN and other organizations monitoring the conflict. ?In 2005 foreign military commanders were saying there were 10,000 Taliban insurgents but in the past five years they have killed over 20,000 alleged Taliban so where are we now?? said former Taliban official Mujhda. ?Peace talks usually require confidence-building rather than increased military operations,? said Bijlert. Activists sceptical Karzai has expressed optimism that his Peace Council will broker a peace deal with the Taliban, but human rights activists have called the Council an unlikely peacemaker. Some experts accuse Karzai of using the Peace Council as a sop to his political opponents, many of whom are members of the Council, to ensure his own political survival, particularly after the withdrawal of foreign forces. ?The Council lacks the confidence of both Mr Karzai and the Taliban,? said Mujhda. The government rejects such criticisms and says the time is ripe for peace and reconciliation, but for now the Taliban are unwilling to play ball. ad/cb

What the world needs!

If we can succeed in developing an international network that draws a larger number of eminent persons into close association for the purpose of making war the least acceptable means of resolving conflicts, rather than the method of first resort, we can have an impact at a systemic level.

From 1989, and no peace yet!!

(November 1989)।Before dawn the aircraft lifted above the serene countryside surrounding Nairobi and flew north above the great Rift Valley leaving the rich green hill country of Kenya and entering Sudanese airspace। Landing in Khartoum that day for the third time in as many weeks, our mission was the same as it would be later in the day in Addis Ababa: meet with the head of state and urge him to further the cause of peace, famine relief, and human rights in his country। Back in Nairobi we had been working with negotiating teams on efforts to conclude preliminary negotiations between Ethiopia and Eritrea, while we were preparing to begin negotiations between the government of Sudan and the Sudanese People's Liberation Army. Leaving our mediation support team and the warring parties in Kenya, today's shuttle between the capitals of these three countries would mean on-board breakfast, lunch and dinner, and an intense schedule for President and Mrs. Carter and for us. In some ways our trip was a welcome interlude from the minute-by-minute frustrations of nudging the parties to agreement. On the other hand, the flights over the parched Sudanese landscape and the rich farm lands of Ethiopia served to emphasize the senseless starvation and the suffering on the ground. Landing again in Nairobi that evening after 10 o'clock, we prepared ourselves for the day ahead. Hardly pausing to savor the agreements we had received from Presidents el-Bashir and Mengistu regarding famine relief, we prepared for the eighteenth day of peace-seeking and the tedious formulations of keeping the parties at the table and working to end the suffering we had just flown over. Departing the aircraft, there was again the feeling of somber responsibility as well as the excitement of our task. Peace is a process, conceived in the mind and felt by the heart. Dayle E. Spencer William J. Spencer

What the world is lacking!

I think the world needs to create more opportunities for peaceful change by helping people work together to manage their differences. The world needs to work harder in spreading the skills for dealing with conflicts through peaceful means, which, in turn, will save lives, strengthens communities, promotes human rights, supports the growth of civil societies, and fosters economic development.