Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Kenya: Why the Yes Vote Will Force a Radical Change in Country's Risk Rating

9 August 2010
Nairobi — Foreign businessmen in Europe and the US who have committed billions of dollars to the Kenyan economy went to bed on Tuesday night with major doubts in their mind.
There was, after all, a high chance that violence would break out if Kenyans voted for the new Constitution and major newspapers around the world had warned their readers over the weekend about this gloomy expectation.
However, they awoke on Wednesday morning to the sobering reality that there would be no violence in Kenya - meaning that they were assigning a punitively high political risk rating to the country.
With Kenyan politics now showing strong signs of stabilising and the country taking significant steps with the passing of the Constitution that could quicken the pace of consolidating democracy, investors will in the next few months be forced to radically reassess their risk models.
It is a path Kenya was expected to pioneer two years ago, but failed with major consequences. Ghana, with its peaceful elections last year, set the pace and Kenya's peace referendum puts it in the league of emerging democracies in Africa.
If the level of global optimism persists, it could see a new wave of rising foreign investment flows into Kenya leading to a major strengthening of the shilling and the emergence of a bull market in the equity and property markets.
This realignment of risk will affect both investment portfolios held by foreign institutional investors and major firms that have either scaled down or held back their involvement in Kenya as the country fell out of favour with politicians in the West because of its bad politics and governance issues.
Over the past eight years, more so after the 2008 political violence, Kenya has ranked consistently among the basket cases in the influential Failed States Index compiled by Foreign Affairs magazine and the Carnegie Foundation's Fund for Peace.
In the 2010 rankings, Kenya dropped to position 13, sitting at the bottom with neighbours Somalia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan and Chad.
This ranking was in the same league as Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Freedom House, an organisation that specialises in promoting democracy, ranked Kenya among what it calls "partially free" nations.
In the world of a human-rights activists sitting in Washington, there seems to be no difference in perception of whether Kenya in 2010 is a failed state in the same league as Somalia or Afghanistan, but these rankings shape the perception of trustees of pension funds making decisions over whether to put their money in KCB shares or HSBC in Hong Kong.
The questions that are likely to occur when judging the Kenyan situation as an investment case is how much longer Western firms can continue missing out on opportunities as Brazil, India, Russia, China and South Africa, the so-called Brics nations, continue making inroads into the continent.
Why would Bric nations have a better perception of risk when it comes to Africa? A lot of it comes down to the fact that these countries have shared experience in their development path with African nations.
Indeed, some of them have political systems that are not judged as democracies and their managers know well how to operate in these environments.
Political risk ranking is important in a world where investors have to take decisions on where to invest billions of dollars every year based on how they and a small group of rating agencies perceive the political risk in a country.
A poor judgment of risk could see the entire investment lost in conflict countries or conversely, a major investment opportunity missed.
As managers and diplomats from Europe and North America struggle to understand the rapidly shifting political fortunes in Africa, Russia, India and Brazil have capitalised on this uncertainty with their firms investing billions of dollars in Africa.
Firms from these countries have invested close to $100 billion here since 2003.
In the past few months, Bharti Airtel made a splash by buying Zain's mobile phone operations in Africa for $10 billion.
Other Indian firms like Essar and Reliance are also making major investments on the continent.
Chinese firms have been investing heavily in the energy, mining and construction sectors.
However, as much as the adventurism of Chinese and Indian firms has continued to receive a lot of attention, attitudes among Western firms are starting to shift as witnessed in the emergence of a strong private equity sector in sub-Saharan Africa.
According to data compiled by the Emerging Markets Private Equity Association, sub-Saharan Africa attracted $1 billion in the first half of 2010, bringing the total investment in the sector so far to $1.9 billion.
Of the 10 funds that succeed in raising money through mid-year, only three were country-dedicated (two for South Africa, one for Angola).
The balance of funds are focused on regional strategies, most with footprints spanning a handful of markets.
Most are generalist in strategy, but it is expected that the focus sectors will continue to be energy and natural resources, financial services, and consumer goods & services.

Monday, August 9, 2010

Kenya not out of the woods yet


Kenya has endorsed a new constitution that seeks to unite the country, but it will take much more to ensure ethnic harmony, especially in Rift Valley region, where thousands were displaced in the election less than three years ago। "I cannot forget or forgive," said a resident of Naka camp in Yamumbi, near Eldoret, the main town in Rift Valley. "I came here naked after they took everything. In 1992 [when another election led to violence], they chased my father and took 10 acres [4ha] of our land." Asked if he thought a new law could help the local communities to move on, the man, who requested anonymity, said: "Only God has the power to forgive." Naka camp, which houses 870 people on 0.3ha, is home to members of the Kikuyu community who fled their homes in Nandi and Kapsabet districts during the 2007-08 post-election violence. The road to the camp meanders past lush maize fields that have grown over the remains of the occasional home that was destroyed. Most of the owners have never returned, with some choosing instead to rent houses in nearby townships. "Most of the people here were squatters or tea estate workers, and now have nowhere to go," camp chairman Reuben Kinyua told IRIN on 4 August, when the country voted on the new constitution. "We are waiting for government to relocate us, but it is taking too long. Now the population is too big for the camp, and life is getting increasingly difficult, especially for the children." Across the country, say aid workers, more than 300,000 people were displaced from their homes while 1,100 died after the disputed 2007-08 elections. Tens of thousands still remain in 19 camps, with Mawingu in the Rift Valley district of Nyahururu accommodating 3,000 households. "A lot of work has been undertaken to try and heal the communities," Eldoret South District Commissioner Alex Olenkoyo told IRIN at Gitwe school in Langas ward. "At the height of the violence, about 76,000 people were displaced here. In February 2009, that reduced to 47,000 IDPs [internally displaced persons] living in 21 camps here. Now, we are down to about 500 households. The peace committees in the communities have been effective, although some tension still exists, especially over land." Land tensions A local resident in Eldoret town told IRIN the tensions would continue until the land question was fully addressed. "We do not have enough land for ourselves," he said, requesting anonymity. "But there is enough land in Kenya for all of us - only if everybody could go back [to] where they came from." Laying the blame on Kenya's immediate post-colonial government, he added: "We have nothing personal against anybody, but we feel communities that were brought to occupy our land should be returned to their regions of origin. That way tensions will cease." Those tensions raised fears that violence could break out again during the 4 August vote. The advocacy group, Peacenet, identified 29 "hot spots", mainly in Rift Valley and Western provinces, amid reports that some communities were being threatened and people had already started leaving their homes. At least 15,000 extra police were deployed to the region to ensure peace, backed up by helicopters. The Interim Independent Electoral Commission, through its chairman Issack Hassan, warned that Kenya could not afford a repeat of 2008. "Given what happened last time, some people said it is better to move away till it is over," Information Minister Samuel Pogishio told IRIN in Eldoret. "But it was a small thing based on fear and driven by past experiences. Many of those leaving did not even carry all their belongings, meaning they expected to return soon." Election day passed largely peacefully, with one incident recorded in the "hot spot" Kuresoi area of North Rift Valley, where an unoccupied grass-thatched house was set ablaze on the eve of the vote. As voting progressed, the Kenya Red Cross Society (KRCS), which deployed a large number of volunteers across the region, said earlier fears of violence had not come to pass. "We have not seen movements that could cause alarm," Patrick Nyongesa, KRCS regional manager for North Rift, told IRIN. "There was general fear and a few people left. In Cheptiret, tension was sparked by rivalry between two boys, one Luhya and the other Kalenjin, over a girl. The matter was sorted out and all is calm." "National renewal" Rift Valley region voted largely against the new constitution, but about 70 percent of those who cast their votes nationally supported it, according to results released by the interim electoral commission on 5 August. "I voted for a new constitution because it is a new beginning for our country," said Margret Wanjiku, one of several displaced farmers living in Eldoret town, told IRIN after casting her vote. "I hope it can help the IDPs." Most support came from Nyanza, Northeastern and Central regions, where key political and other leaders backed the new constitution. "The historic journey that we began over 20 years ago is now coming to a happy end," President Mwai Kibaki said in an address to the nation on 5 August. "Let us all join hands together to as we begin the process of national renewal under the new constitution." The document upholds human dignity, equity, social justice, human rights, non-discrimination and the protection of those who are marginalized. It obliges the state to address the needs of vulnerable groups, and calls for measures to redress any disadvantage suffered by individuals or populations because of past discrimination. It also stipulates the right to adequate housing and reasonable shelter, and freedom from hunger. A date for the promulgation of the new document is to be announced. In the meantime, the interim electoral commission will publish the referendum results in 14 days. After the promulgation, parliament will be prorogued while top leaders will be required to take fresh oaths of office. In three months, parliament will form committees to implement the new law while another commission like the Judicial Service Commission will be set up. According to Solomon Dersso, senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies in Addis Ababa, the new document will introduce some important changes in Kenya. It cuts the power of the president, beefs up the oversight role of parliament, vests the judiciary with the power of judicial review and introduces important checks and balances. It also seeks to devolve power away from the centre to the regions, creating two levels of government: national and county. Most importantly, it also promises to deal with the most contentious issue of land, and attempts to restructure various institutions, such as the Electoral Commission. Words of warning However, despite the upbeat mood across the nation, some leaders urged caution. "You cannot just go and tell people 'live together nicely, now forgive each other' when in fact somebody lost his parents or lost his land or business and yet nothing has been done about it," Bethuel Kiplagat, chairman of the Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission, told Reuters AlertNet. "We have to approach it through the healing of the individual and communities. If nothing is done about them - an acknowledgement, counselling, reparations - I am afraid the seeds of the next conflict are dormant, waiting to explode again."
IRIN

Thursday, July 29, 2010

Land slide victory expected for Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame




I was recently in Rwanda for three days (from July 19 to July 22, 2010) to cover the President Paul Kagame’s presidential campaigns ahead of the August 10 general election. But from what I gathered on the ground, the man has a fanatical following. The man is just loved by the Rwandans. Contrary to international media reports that he is frustrating his opponents, and that he is oppressing his opponents, the situation is totally different on the ground!!!

Elections will be free and Rwanda will not go Kenyan way-Kagame

By Francis Mureithi

President Paul Kagame says he will not let Rwanda plunge into post election chaos similar to the one witnessed in Kenya 2007.

With less than 16 days left before the Rwandans go to vote, Kagame who heads the ruling Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF) has declared to the world that he has no intention of clinging to power incase any of the three opponents trounce him.

Challenging Kagame in the August 10 presidential elections are Jean-Damascene Ntawukuriryayo, the deputy speaker running for the Social Democratic Party, as well as Prosper Higiro, of the Liberal Party and Alvera Mukabaramba from the Party of Progress and Concord.

“If the people of Rwanda decide I should not continue, I will respect their decision 110 percent, take it from me,” Kagame said during a media conference in his Presidential office in Kigali barely hours before he kicked off his three-week official campaign.

“I have no doubt that these elections will be conducted in a free, fair and stable manner. We are going to keep our piece. There will be piece even after elections,” said the humble and easily accessed president.

But chances of any of the three opponents beating Kagame are extremely slim. The opposition is too feeble and hardly seen hunting for votes.

With only days left, no campaign poster of any of the opposition candidates is seen in the entire Kigali. None of the opposition candidates, or agents, was seen or heard campaigning during my three days stay in Kigali.

Kagame, 52 and who has ruled Rwanda since his RPF ended the 1994 genocide by the Hutu majority against his Tutsi minority, is expected to win with a landslide.

At Amahoro national stadium where he launched national campaigns, tens-of-thousands of his jubilant supporters sang and danced, their faces clearly betraying where their loyalty lies.

The almost fanatical support of Kagame was also displayed during his second day of campaigns in Rulindo and Gakenke in northern Rwanda some 50 kilometres from Kigali.

A number of groups, including the American based Human Rights Watch as well as the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda Rwandan, rebel group based in the Democratic Republic of Congo have accused President Kagame of running a campaign of terror against his opponents.

But Kagame vehemently denies this claim, accusing foreigners of meddling with Rwanda affairs and attempting to decide for the Rwandese. He blames political detractors for soiling the image of his administration and that of his country.

“People who complain about Rwanda have never been in the country or cared to learn what is happening on the ground,” stated Kagame when asked if he was crumping on opposition.

To him, he has created an environment for the opposition to uplift itself, an opportunity he sees as wasted by those in the opposition.

“My job has not been to create opposition. Maybe one day I will be in the opposition one day, but as long as I am not in opposition, my job is not to create it,” he adds.

On June 14, deputy leader of one the opposition parties, the unregistered Green Party of Rwanda was murdered 8 days ago.

Andre Kagwa Rwisereka's body was found in the early hours on the banks of River Mukura near the border with Burundi, about 1km from where his Toyota pick-up was abandoned.

On June 24, a Rwandan journalist was shot dead by unknown assailants as he returned to his home in Kigali. Jean Leonard Rugambage, was the deputy chief editor of "Umuvugizi" newspaper, which was suspended for six months by the country's statutory Media High Council in April.

Some quarters have linked the death to a story Rugambage published on "Umuvugizi"'s online edition, which alleged that Rwandan security operatives were behind last month’s assassination attempt on exiled former Rwanda Army Chief of Staff Lt. General Kayumba Nyamwasa in South Africa.

Feuding questions from journalists from the East African Community, Kagame denied any involvement of his RPF party in the killings either directly or indirectly.

“What would be the reason to kill somebody from Green Party. He was not even the leader of the party. Why should my government kill a journalist as if there is something I am going to gain from,” said Kagame.

“You will probably not be here is there was such crampness,” states Kagame when asked if his party was muzzling the press.

“Journalist from the region or internationally work comfortably here, yet you claim that there is a clampdown. The country has invested to ensure every citizen has access to information to express themselves freely. Other journalists except Rwandese claim that. People spreading the rumors don’t live here and yet write stories,” says the President.

The President has cited rapid infrastructure development during his presidency, improved health care and peace across Rwanda as the key reasons why the people of Rwanda should vote for his come voting day.

‘There are those self appointed spokesmen who live abroad and create impressions that are non existent. Voters will express their stand on a number of issues. Rwanda has made its commitment, dedication and determination to shape its own future. They feel they own others and want to speak for them,” he says.

Ends/..

Thursday, July 15, 2010

COULD UGANDA HAVE PREVENTED THE TERRORIST ATTACKS?







On July 11, Uganda capital Kampala capital rocked by co-ordinated bomb blasts which targeted people gathered to watch the World Cup final. At least 76 people were killed and Somali Islamists Al-Shabab quickly claimed it was responsible for the attacks.
The blasts came two days after a commander with the Somali group, Al-Shabab, called for militants to attack sites in Uganda and Burundi, two nations that contribute troops to the African Union peacekeeping force in Somalia.


But what did Uganda’s intelligence units do regarding this vital information that was carried on October 23rd, 2009?

Al-Shabaab: We Will Attack Uganda and Burundi
Islamist rebel group and al-qaeda proxy in Africa, al-shabaab, has threatened to attack the capitals of Burundi and Uganda in retaliation of what they say are attacks by peacekeepers in these countries which killed over 30 people in Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia. In a statement, Sheikh Ali Mohamed Hussein, a senior al Shabaab commander, said “We shall make their people cry. We’ll attack Bujumbura and Kampala; we will move our fighting to those two cities and we shall destroy them,”
The African Union’s (AU) AMISOM force in the Somali capital is made up of contingents from across Africa; and Burundi and Uganda both have 2,500 peacekeepers taking part in operations there. AIMSOM’s spokesman in Mogadishu, Major Barigye Ba-hoku said “Al Shabaab wants to drag us into their war; they shell us and then they also shell Bakara, then they tell people there it was AMISOM who killed civilians. We know their tactics.” “We do not take their threats lightly,” Ba-hoku said. He also said that “Any attempt to attack Burundi or Uganda will be met with decisive action and will be defeated.
(So is Uganda equal to task?)
*********************************************************
And what is Uganda, Burundi and even Kenya doing regarding the following crucial information? That came to light on July 15, 2010?
Kampala attacks just a beginning , warns Somali Islamist Al Shabaab leader


English.news.cn 2010-07-15 15:29:35

MOGADISHU, July 15 (Xinhua) -- The spiritual leader of the radical Islamist group in Somalia which claimed responsibility for the deadly Sunday twin attacks in the Ugandan capital Kampala on Thursday said the assault was "just a prelude."
In an audio tape posted on website of Islamist group of Al Shabaab, the Emir of the Islamist movement, Sheikh Muqtar Abdelrahman Abu Zubeyr, reiterated the movement's accusation of the African Union (AU) peacekeeping forces in Mogadishu of committing "massacres" against the people in Mogadishu.
Al Shabaab, which is fighting Somali government and AU forces in Mogadishu, claimed responsibility for the twin attacks over the weekend in Kampala which left almost 76 people dead and many more injured. "The incident in Kampala is just a prelude," said the reclusive leader of the Somali militant group that controls much of south- central of the Horn of African nation.
He congratulated the Islamist fighters who carried out the Kampala attack saying they were "honored" to carry out the deadly operation in Kampala. He called the group behind the attacks as "the Salah Nebhan Brigade" after the most senior foreign member of the Al Shabaab.
Nebhan, a Kenyan-born senior Al Qaeda figure, was killed last year after U.S. helicopters strafed a vehicle he was travelling in near the southern Somali town of Barawa. Abu Zubeyr claimed that the AU peacekeeping mission troops in Mogadishu known as AMISOM, of which Uganda and Burundi are the only contributing countries, have committed "worse massacres" in Mogadishu allegedly than the U.S. as well as Ethiopia whose troops withdrew early last year after two year presence in Somalia. "The so-called AMISOM have committed worse massacres in Mogadishu than the ones previously committed by the Ethiopians and the Americans."
The Islamist leader who has never been seen in public since assuming leadership of the movement in 2008 after the death of the former head, vowed to continue avenging against Uganda and Burundi.

Friday, July 2, 2010

Uniting against terrorism across the Sahara


Seven governments in the Sahara-Sahel region are combining efforts to counter terrorist groups, such as Al Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, which took credit for bombing of the UN headquarters in Algiers in December 2007 (above), an act that claimed the lives of 17 UN personnel. .
Photograph: UN / Evan Schneider
For countries bordering the Sahara Desert, terrorist attacks continue to pose “real threats,” says Algerian Foreign Minister Mourad Medelci. The menace, he adds, is compounded by the fact that terrorist groups often have ties with organized crime, including drug and arms traffickers who operate across the region’s remote and poorly controlled frontiers. To face the challenge, Mr. Medelci says, African countries must not only better coordinate their actions against terrorism and crime, but also improve the living conditions of the poorest people.
One sign of growing cooperation against terrorism among governments in the region was a 16 March meeting in Algiers between Mr. Medelci and the foreign ministers of a half dozen other countries — Burkina Faso, Chad, Libya, Mali, Mauritania and Niger — all of which border the Sahara and the semi-desert region to its south known as the Sahel. The following month, the military chiefs of the seven countries also met in Algiers, specifically to coordinate their security actions.
The ministers and generals were spurred on by fresh reminders in recent months of the seriousness of the problem: the seizure of several European and African hostages in Mauritania and Mali, an attack on a military post in Niger that cost the lives of five Nigerien soldiers and an ambush in the Kabylie region of Algeria that killed seven security guards. Most actions have been claimed by Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), known for its dramatic bombing of the UN offices in Algiers in December 2007. Although it is a predominantly Algerian dissident group, it also includes fighters from other countries and operates throughout the region.
Groups using terrorist methods have emerged elsewhere in Africa as well, including in East Africa and Somalia. Recognizing that terrorism has emerged as a continental problem, the African Union (AU) has developed a Plan of Action on the Prevention and Combating of Terrorism in Africa. In addition to law enforcement measures, it emphasizes the need for governments to reduce poverty, deprivation and marginalization, which can foster discontent and be used by terrorist groups to recruit followers and justify violence.
In late April, AU Commissioner for Peace and Security Ramtane Lamamra reaffirmed the organization’s commitment to the struggle against terrorism. Noting that AQIM and other groups have seized hostages and demanded money or political concessions for their release, he urged governments to refrain from paying ransoms, as it may encourage yet further kidnappings. Fighting terrorism, Mr. Lamamra said, must include “refusing to cede to the blackmail of terrorist groups.”
The issue of how to deal with hostage-taking has stirred some controversy. A couple weeks before the Algiers meeting, a court in Mali released four suspected AQIM fighters, prompting AQIM to free a French citizen who had earlier been kidnapped in northern Mali. Both Algeria and Mauritania protested the release of the AQIM suspects (two were Algerian and one was Mauritanian).
The Algiers meeting took up the topic. All seven governments agreed to abide by an AU decision in July 2009 to condemn the payment of ransom to terrorist groups, as well as to enforce a December 2009 UN Security Council resolution that criminalizes any payments to listed terrorist individuals and organizations.
The ministers recognized that terrorist activities, especially in conjunction with crossborder trafficking in drugs, arms and persons, are “a threat and a factor of instability for the entire region, and pose an obstacle to socio-economic development.” By acting together, they affirmed, it would be possible to “restore to the Sahelian-Saharan region its role as an area of trade, peace, stability and productive cooperation.”
The ministers agreed on action in a number of specific areas:
Strengthening bilateral and regional cooperation to maintain the region’s peace, security and socio-economic development,
Pursuing programmes for sustainable development to improve people’s living conditions, and especially to ensure the social and economic integration of young people,
Combating terrorism and criminality by winning the support of local populations,
Developing an integrated anti-terrorism approach by governments, regional organizations and the international community,
Bolstering judicial cooperation and the monitoring of illicit financial flows, and
Improving coordination among the military high commands of the seven countries.
In April, the Algerian army launched a major operation against several hundred suspected AQIM fighters in that country. Then on 13 April the military chiefs of the seven countries met in Algiers. According to General Ahmed Gaïd Salah, the Algerian army chief of staff, he and his counterparts agreed to establish a security information coordination centre in Tamanrasset in southern Algeria and to step up joint monitoring of their borders to crack down on terrorists, smugglers and drug traffickers.
By addressing the region’s security challenges, General Salah said, it would make it easier for “our respective political authorities to devote themselves to the task of economic and social development for the benefit of our peoples.”
– Africa Renewal online
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Somali refugees face dangers and obstacles on their flight to safety


2 July 2010
This is a summary of what was said by UNHCR spokesperson Adrian Edwards – to whom quoted text may be attributed – at the press briefing, on 2 July 2010, at the Palais des Nations in Geneva.
Despite the continuing deterioration in Somalia's security and humanitarian environments our latest data is showing that the flow of refugees into most neighbouring countries has decreased considerably compared to the same period last year.
The numbers of arrivals in Yeman and Kenya – countries which have traditionally borne the brunt of the Somali refugee – are down sharply. In Yemen there were 6,660 new arrivals in the first half of this year, compared to 13,801 in the first half of 2009. In Kenya, arrivals have fallen by a third from 44,385 in the first six months of 2009 to 29,848 in the same period this year.
The reasons for this drop are not safer or more stable circumstances. The situation is worsening and everyday violence and human rights abuses in Somalia continue to displace thousands of civilians. We estimate that more than 200,000 Somalis have been forced to leave their homes this year alone – with most becoming displaced internally.
Due to insecurity and a lack of access to many parts of the country, UNHCR and other humanitarian organisations providing aid are facing great difficulties in reaching the millions of needy.
Those who reach safety abroad speak of a dire situation inside the country. According to newly arrived refugees, it is becoming increasingly dangerous and difficult to flee Somalia. Many displaced civilians are effectively trapped inside the country.
Somalis arriving by boat in Yemen have told us that there are now a dozen checkpoints on the road from Mogadishu to the northern port of Bossaso where many of those trying to flee the country board smugglers boats. These checkpoints are manned by different armed groups.
In Kenya, refugees are telling us they have fled insecurity and indiscriminate fighting between government forces and armed militias. They say it has been difficult to reach Kenya as many fear forced recruitment and abuse along the way. Often there is no transport and, when there is, many cannot afford to pay for the trip to the borders. In addition, the rainy season has made some roads impassable. Some of the refugees arriving in Kenya have been walking for days, resting along the way often without any shelter.
The one regional exception in terms of arrivals is Ethiopia, which has received 12,639 Somali refugees in the first half of 2010 compared to 8,411 in the same period in 2009.
There are now almost 600,000 Somali refugees in the region – some 323,000 in Kenya, another 164,000 were registered at reception centres in Yemen on arrival, and 72,000 in Ethiopia. After Afghanistan and Iraq, Somalia is generating the largest number of refugees in the world. In addition, there are more than 1.4 million people who are internally displaced.

DR Congo: Celebrating 50 years of chaos


Page last updated at 08:17 GMT, Wednesday, 30 June 2010 09:17 UK
By Thomas FessyBBC News, Kinshasa First Congolese President Joseph Kasavubu was ousted in 1965
As the Democratic Republic of Congo celebrates 50 years of independence, President Joseph Kabila wants to use the occasion to overturn his country's image of chaos, endless war and bad governance.
A day before the celebrations, workers were still frantically repainting facades on the main boulevard of the capital, Kinshasa, despite starting the job 18 months ago.
A layer of paint will not give us food and salaries
Kinshasa resident
And when one young man, covered in white paint, knocked on my door requesting access to the balcony, he begged for food as he had not eaten all day.
The Belgian King Albert II, UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon and other African heads of state in town for the anniversary will probably only see these revamped thoroughfares.
But for most residents of Kinshasa, Africa's third largest city, getting electricity and running water would have been a preferable gesture.
"A layer of paint will not give us food and salaries," one Congolese man said about the preparations.
DR Congo is rich in gold, but much of it has been plundered over the years
Once the personal property of the Belgian king, DR Congo - a vast country two-thirds the size of Western Europe with huge mineral wealth - gained independence from Belgium on the 30 June 1960.
Who will ever forget the massacres where so many of our brothers perished?
Patrice Lumumba Independence fighter
At a ceremony in the Congolese capital, then called Leopoldville, then-King Baudoin said, without a hint of irony: "Congo's independence constitutes the outcome of the work initiated by the genius of Leopold II, undertaken by him with a tenacious courage and continued with perseverance by Belgium."
The Belgian monarch did not expect the new charismatic Congolese Prime Minister, Patrice Lumumba, to offer a different view of colonial rule in a speech made on the same day.
"Who will ever forget the massacres where so many of our brothers perished; the cells into which those who refused to submit to a regime of injustice, oppression and exploitation were thrown?" said Mr Lumumba, who was murdered the next year, reportedly with US and Belgian complicity.
Educated elite
Fifty years on, many Congolese are asking whether the years of independence have been any kinder than 80 years of brutal colonial rule.
Lucy Lusumba: "My hair-do is the only event in my life"
In pictures: The DR Congo at 50
Since 1960, DR Congo has only had four presidents - only the first and last democratically elected.
Independence President Joseph Kasavubu was toppled in a coup by then army chief Mobutu Sese Seko in 1965.
Mobutu stayed in power for more than three decades until he was overthrown by rebel leader Laurent-Desire Kabila, who was assassinated in 2001 and his son, Joseph Kabila, took over to lead a peace process and win elections.
Ntanda Nkere, a political scientist at the University of Kinshasa, says education could be seen as one success of the last 50 years, but it has not helped when it comes to leadership.
"When the country became independent, they were only nine people with university degrees. They are probably one million today," he says.
"But there has to be a clear commitment to changing this country. But that commitment is not there yet really," he says.
Eighty-year-old Justin-Marie Mbomboko, who was Congolese foreign minister in 1960, agrees.
"What has destroyed the country is the fact that there's been no political plan for the future," he says.
"Let's talk about mismanagement: Governance is not good. If the country isn't well managed, no matter what regime is in place, the country will fall in ruins."
The army has been accused of human rights abuses
The many ordinary Congolese grumbling about the jubilee put it in starker terms.
"Ever since we gained independence, happiness has only been for those close to the man in charge - they eat well and they are well paid. But a large number of people simply suffer," a street vendor in Kinshasa explains.
A woman nearby selling vegetables says: "It is all negative.
"Nothing works. The authorities don't care about the population, children cannot study properly - even human rights are not respected."
Blame game
The former colonial power acknowledges that it left Congo with pretty much no political arena.
It is very ironic: When we became independent, the UN was there to protect us. We celebrate 50 years of independence and the UN is here to protect us
Professor Ntanda Nkere
"We have to recognise that Belgium did a tremendous job during the colonial period but we haven't produced sufficient elite to run the country," Belgium's Kinshasa ambassador Dominique Struye says.
"But it's also now up to Congo to take up its full responsibility and not always find an excuse in the past not to run their country properly."
The Congolese authorities also say they do not want to play the blame game.
"After 50 years of independence we are adult people. It's not the time to recall what happened during the colonial rule," Foreign Minister Alexis Thambwe Mwamba told the BBC.
"Fifty years later, we cannot say that if things are not going well in Congo, it's the fault of Belgium or of Leopold II," he says.
And both countries hail the occasion as a turning point their difficult relationship. However, tellingly, King Albert II will make no speech, according to Belgian officials.
His visit also sparked controversy in Belgium particularly when prominent Congolese human rights activist Floribert Chebeya was murdered at the beginning of June.
Cha-cha
Analysts say that there has been a growing trend of repression against opposition members and rights activists since elections in 2006.
Mobutu Sese Seko ruled for more than three decades
After independence a UN force was sent to Congo to help maintain law and order after an army mutiny.
Security still remains a major problem in several provinces, especially in the east, the centre of what has been termed Africa's First World War in the late 1990s.
The country now hosts the biggest peacekeeping mission in the world.
Some blue helmets began a symbolic withdrawal this month even though Congolese security forces, blamed for repeated human rights abuses, are not ready to take over.
"It is very ironic: When we became independent, the UN was there to protect us. We celebrate 50 years of independence and the UN is here to protect us," says Prof Nkere.
"What does that reveal? That nothing has been done for the last 50 years."
Back in 1960, rumba singer Joseph Kabasale, sang the famous Independence Cha-cha - a tune known by all Congolese.
"We've gained independence; at last we are free," it said.
Baloji, a young Congolese-Belgian rapper, has recently adapted Kabasale's independence anthem, calling it "The Day After".
Like many Congolese, he is still waiting to taste the benefits of freedom.