Ivory Coast's Power Struggle: A Test for African Democracy

A troika of Presidents from the West African nations of Benin, Cape Verde and Sierra Leone met with Ivory Coast's incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo on Tuesday in the hopes of avoiding military intervention to resolve a postelectoral dispute that has left the country with two Presidents. In a situation that analysts say presents a key test for regional groups and leaders, Africa is eschewing the help of traditional international mediators and trying to solve this problem on its own.

Dispatched by the regional group ECOWAS, or the Economic Community of West African States, the three leaders arrived bearing the latest array of diplomatic measures aimed at persuading Gbagbo to step down: political asylum, diplomatic immunity and deals that could ensure him a future in Ivorian politics. Once seen as a savior figure following 11 years of opposing the kleptocratic postindependence President Felix Houphouet-Boigny, Gbagbo is now refusing to relinquish power a month after the Constitutional Court handed him a flawed election victory that the international community unanimously doesn't recognize, saying it should go instead to his opponent Alassane Ouattara. (See pictures of Ivory Coast's contested election.)

Following a hastily organized Christmas Eve reunion, ECOWAS says it is giving "a final warning" to Gbagbo, "with the firm position that if [he] continues to hold on to power illegally, ECOWAS will have no choice but to remove him forcefully."

Gbagbo's camp is spinning the talk of military intervention as a declaration of "war" on Ivory Coast backed by Western powers. State-controlled television repeatedly shows Gbagbo supporters at rallies waving placards that protest against Western intervention; "Gbagbo is not a district of France," reads one, referring to Ivory Coast's notoriously fractious history with its former colonial ruler. (See how Ivory Coast is trying to break a bloody cycle.)

But while ECOWAS has taken the lead with the unusually strong position of openly criticizing an incumbent President, the group will be hoping that the threat of force alone is enough to persuade Gbagbo to step down. "Whether at this point all other avenues have been explored to justify military intervention is one thing," says Rolake Akinola, analyst at London-based consultancy Vox Frontier. "Talking of military intervention but not actually using it can in fact increase the security headache."

Gbagbo's popular support may be dwindling as he cracks down on the population in his bid to cling to power. In the commercial capital of Abidjan, armed assailants kick their way into the houses of Ouattara supporters each night. Gunshots can be heard, and the next day neighbors desperately trawl the morgues looking for the bodies of their friends. (See more on Ivory Coast's disputed election.)

But using ECOWAS' armed forces could backfire and provoke a resurgence in support for Gbagbo. Any military interventionists will have to grapple with delicate issues, most importantly securing their objective quickly and with minimal bloodshed — neither of which is guaranteed. Diplomats say a majority of soldiers voted for Ouattara, but the top brass currently remain loyal to Gbagbo.

Ivorian-born Nigerian Chidi (who asked to be identified only by his first name) was among a handful of demonstrators who gathered on Dec. 27 to protest against military intervention. "Why should one African brother kill another?" he asks, standing in front of the Nigerian embassy in Abidjan. One of a million Ivorian-born Nigerians in Ivory Coast, Chidi says he fears reprisals against the Nigerian community in the event of a military solution — Africa's largest country has provided the majority of soldiers in most military missions by ECOWAS. (Comment on this story.)

It's unclear which state would take the lead in this case; Nigeria is facing its own security crises, from the struggle to quell radical Islamic sects to an upcoming election in April. Bordering Liberia and Ghana are already dealing with an influx of some 14,000 refugees from Ivory Coast, says the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees. And troops from Sahelian neighbors Mali and Burkina Faso could further complicate matters, given that Ivory Coast's 2002 civil war was supported by northern citizens — many with Burkinabe and Malian origins — who felt marginalized by southern-led governments.

The unity of the 16 countries behind the facade of ECOWAS will be tested over the coming weeks — across the continent leaders are already suggesting contrasting approaches. Former South African President Thabo Mbeki has called for a "consensual" solution, while Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga says force is the most "effective" method.

But as the U.N. reports at least 173 dead, more than 200 wounded and almost 500 detained so far, whether Gbagbo chooses to step down or is successfully removed by force, the troublesome results of Ivory Coast's presidential election point to deeper issues across the continent. "It's not that democracy doesn't work in Africa," says South African Ambassador Zodwa Lallie. "It's the best thing we have. But we can't overlay it without considering the structures that already exist. Africans must know that your voice is your own, your vote is your own — not your tribe's, your chief's or anyone else's.

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2039916,00.html#ixzz19UDF5THs

Ivory Coast- Analyst, Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Centre

Ivory Coast is different from Liberia and Sierra Leone. It is a functioning wealthy country with a strong army, so a force will meet some credible resistance.

Furthermore, it doesn't look as if Ecowas is capable of putting a credible force on the ground: Nigeria is heading towards elections and may not want to put in troops for that long a time; Ghana has elections in 2012 and Senegal has its own problems with dynastic succession. So the key countries that would have to contribute may not have the political stomach and the temerity.

I would have thought an emphasis on sanctions, bank accounts, no-fly zones, seizure of properties - total isolation on the continent - would have been a first step.

But it looks as if there has been a hastiness to demonstrate that "we can deal with Gbagbo" - and in doing so Ecowas, the African Union and the United Nations have actually closed too many doors that limit their options for engagement and manoeuvre.

Rebel leader’s arrest just one step in fight against impunity in DRC

LONDON, 21 October 2010 (IRIN) - The recent arrest in Europe of a senior Rwandan militia leader is a welcome step in the fight against impunity in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) but real progress in the protection of civilians depends on the apprehension of commanders on the ground, according to analysts. Acting on a warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC), French police arrested Callixte Mbarushimana, vice-president of the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), on 11 October in Paris. He stands charged of 11 counts of war crimes and crimes against humanity in DRC in 2009. Almost two million people are internally displaced in eastern DRC?s Kivu provinces, in large part due to the activities of the FDLR. International and local human rights groups applauded Mbarushimana?s arrest which comes after a long and controversial military campaign to stamp out the Hutu-dominated group that formed in DRC after the 1994 Rwandan genocide. But they suggest impact on the ground - where a brutal campaign of murder and rape allegedly committed by FDLR soldiers has blighted the lives of civilians - will be minimal. ?It is clear from the latest military operations that the FDLR is weakened, and the arrest of individuals in Europe just weakens them even further,? said Anneke Van Woudenberg, senior researcher at Human Rights Watch. ?But will it stop them attacking civilians? I fear not. I think that we?ve seen in the past that it doesn?t have an immediate impact on behaviour on the ground, because there has been this division between the political movement [in Europe] and the military leadership in the field.? Mbarushimana took over the FDLR?s political wing following the November 2009 arrests of FDLR President Ignace Murwanashyaka and his deputy Straton Musoni in Germany. They remain in German custody charged, under the principle of universal jurisdiction, with bearing command responsibility for war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by FDLR troops eastern DRC. ICC allegations The ICC alleges that Mbarushimana planned a series of crimes from his base in France with the intention of creating a humanitarian catastrophe, then extorting concessions of political power from the international community.
Photo: Olivier Nyirubugara/IRIN
ICC prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo said the latest arrest could help demobilize the FDLR?After 16 years of continuous violence, this could be an opportunity to finally demobilize the group,? said ICC prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo in a press release. ?Their leaders are gone.? But not everyone is convinced that FDLR will give up their fight so easily. Fidel Bafilemba, the eastern DRC field researcher for the Enough Project, says the soldiers on the ground care little for international warrants for European leaders. ?Why should this [latest] arrest make a difference that the arrest of Ignace Murwanashyaka didn't make?? he said. In fact, one of the most shocking incidents in DRC?s recent history occurred long after Murwanashyaka and Musoni were taken into custody - the rape of hundreds of women near Walikale in August, allegedly by FDLR soldiers and their Congolese Mayi-Mayi allies. Many recent atrocities attributed to the FDLR have come in apparent response to the military campaigns against them by the Rwandan and DRC armies assisted by the UN peace-keeping force in DRC, known as MONUSCO (formerly MONUC). ?What I fear with FDLR is that they have shown when under military pressure they attack Congolese civilians,? said Van Woudenberg. ?The recent rapes in Walikale are a prime example of the FDLR and their Mayi Mayi allies punishing Congolese people for their perceived support for these military operations against them.? Independent DRC analyst Jason Stearns describes the military approach to date as clumsy and says it has worsened the humanitarian catastrophe in the east. He is also unconvinced that targeting Europe-based FDLR will stamp out the rebels. ?We should crack down on the diaspora, but let?s not lose sight of the fact that in the larger scheme of things it?s not going to be by any stretch of the imagination the key factor in dealing with the FDLR,? said Stearns, the former head of the UN Group of Experts on Congo. ?There are other much more important issues to deal with than the diaspora.? He believes that MONUSCO and others should be reaching out to the commanders on the ground who were not involved in the Rwandan genocide - many of whom are tired of life in the forest and the constant military pressure. ?There has been relatively little outreach to them,? he said. ?We need to find out who the genocidaires [those who took part in Rwanda?s 1994 genocide] are in the FDLR, but we just don?t know. It?s hard to engage in this outreach to commanders if you are operating with this lack of information.?
Read more
Justice still remote for victims of atrocities in DRC
International justice denied
Who?s who of armed groups in DRC
Mixed report card for ICC
DRC army accused of crimes against humanityStearns proposes third country exile for FDLR members found not to be involved in violations of international law and who do not want to return to Rwanda. ?Powerful signal? International Crisis Group?s central Africa senior analyst, Guillaume Lacaille, agrees that military offensives alone will not end the violence and that FDLR military leaders in the field should be given the opportunity to relocate, but within the DRC. ?Those who accept to leave the FDLR could be relocated in a western province of the Congo in exchange for disarmament, rather than accept immediate repatriation to Rwanda,? he said. Lacaille, however, insists the arrest of Mbarushimana and the others is also an important part of the process of bringing peace to eastern DRC. ?It sends a powerful signal that directing from Europe a criminal group operating in Congo will have serious consequences,? he said. ?In the past, leaders of armed groups were led to believe that they could operate safely from comfortable Western capitals. The ICC and the governments of Germany and France demonstrated clearly that it is not possible any more.? Enough?s Bafilemba also sees the new ICC case as a positive step towards ending impunity in DRC, but expects more from the court. That means warrants for crimes committed by all sides in the conflict including the national army which this week came under pressure from Margot Wallstrom, the UN envoy on sexual violence in conflict, who accused its soldiers of murdering and raping villagers in Walikale. Van Woudenberg, meanwhile, is calling on the Rwandan government to do its part in ending the violence. ?As long as the political space in Rwanda is not opened up to the Hutu, the problem of the FDLR will continue,? she said. The lasting solution to this problem of Hutu and their political space is Rwanda and Rwanda will need to open this political space.? Rwandan President Paul Kagame responded to this oft-voiced view in his 6 October swearing-in speech that followed his 93 percent landslide victory in an August election: ??That there is no political space ? what do you mean? The political space is well and fully occupied by the people of this country. And if the people of this country has spoken in such numbers and freely, who are you to question anything they have said? Where do you come from? From Mars?? lc/am/cb

Peace moves in Afghanistan as fighting goes on

KABUL, 21 October 2010 (IRIN) - Talks about peace talks with Taliban insurgents are gaining unprecedented momentum, but fighting in Afghanistan is continuing, with catastrophic consequences for civilians. President Hamid Karzai acknowledges making contact with senior Taliban members and has appointed a 68-member Peace Council, led by warlords and well-known anti-Taliban figures, to facilitate a peace deal with the largely Pashtun insurgents. The Taliban have rejected formal contacts with Kabul and dubbed the process ?futile propaganda?. They have repeatedly vowed not to engage in any negotiations until all foreign forces leave Afghanistan. Ordinary Afghans are suffering the most. The conflict has killed and wounded thousands over the past few years, according to the UN. ?We have kept the peace door open since 2002,? Baryalai Helali, spokesman of the government?s National Peace Programme (NPP), told IRIN, adding that there had been ?some deficiencies? in previous peace efforts. NPP is supposed to implement Peace Council decisions and help reintegrate insurgents who lay down their arms. ?The US war in Afghanistan is now the longest in our history, and is costing US taxpayers nearly US$100 billion per year? Prosecuting the war in Afghanistan is not essential to US security,? a group of American scholars calling themselves the Afghanistan Study Group said in a report in September. Meanwhile, Taliban confidence appears to be growing: ?We inform our Muslim nation that victory is imminent as the enemy is desperately seeking [an] exit,? said a recent Taliban statement. Richard Barrett, coordinator of the UN al-Qaeda-Taliban monitoring team, however, believes the Taliban are ?beginning to look at alternatives to fighting?. Sticking point: Mullah Omar The government has dropped the term ?moderate Taliban? which it used in previous peace efforts: President Karzai has invited all Taliban, including their reclusive supreme leader Mullah Mohammad Omar, to peace talks. However, Washington has rejected a role for Mullah Omar in the peace process. ?I can?t imagine Mullah Omar playing a constructive role in Afghanistan? Our focus on Mullah Omar, from a US standpoint, is based on his complicity in support of al-Qaeda that led to the plot of 9/11,? Philip J. Crowley, assistant secretary in the US State Department, told reporters on 14 October.
Photo: Salih/IRIN
President Hamid Karzai reaches outOmar, who has never been photographed or seen on TV, reportedly heads the movement?s so-called ?Quetta Shura? based in Pakistan?s Balochistan Province. ?There can be no peace or even peace talks without Mullah Omar,? Waheed Mujhda, an Afghan analyst and former Taliban official, told IRIN. All efforts to isolate and marginalize Omar have failed, he said. ?The fate of Omar is a contentious issue between President Karzai and his American patrons,? said Martine van Bijlert, co-director of the Afghanistan Analyst Network (AAN), a Kabul-based research group. NPP spokesman Helali said the government was ready to vouchsafe Omar?s security if he chose to engage in peace talks. Words versus action While the debate about peace talks continues, more than 300 mid-level Taliban commanders have been killed or captured over the past three months in an intensified US-led counter-insurgency operation, according to David Petraeus, commander of all foreign forces in Afghanistan. Air strikes against alleged Taliban positions have reportedly risen by over 150 percent in 2010 compared to last year. There are about 150,000 foreign forces, mainly from the USA, in Afghanistan - more than at any time since the war against the Taliban began in late 2001. ?The Americans want to disrupt and weaken the insurgency and by doing so force the Taliban into peace talks from a position of weakness,? said AAN?s Bijlert. However, while the Taliban have always been defeated in open combat, they have managed to regroup subsequently, experts say. Taliban attacks, including suicide bombings, have risen sharply over the past three years, according to UN and other organizations monitoring the conflict. ?In 2005 foreign military commanders were saying there were 10,000 Taliban insurgents but in the past five years they have killed over 20,000 alleged Taliban so where are we now?? said former Taliban official Mujhda. ?Peace talks usually require confidence-building rather than increased military operations,? said Bijlert. Activists sceptical Karzai has expressed optimism that his Peace Council will broker a peace deal with the Taliban, but human rights activists have called the Council an unlikely peacemaker. Some experts accuse Karzai of using the Peace Council as a sop to his political opponents, many of whom are members of the Council, to ensure his own political survival, particularly after the withdrawal of foreign forces. ?The Council lacks the confidence of both Mr Karzai and the Taliban,? said Mujhda. The government rejects such criticisms and says the time is ripe for peace and reconciliation, but for now the Taliban are unwilling to play ball. ad/cb

What the world needs!

If we can succeed in developing an international network that draws a larger number of eminent persons into close association for the purpose of making war the least acceptable means of resolving conflicts, rather than the method of first resort, we can have an impact at a systemic level.

From 1989, and no peace yet!!

(November 1989)।Before dawn the aircraft lifted above the serene countryside surrounding Nairobi and flew north above the great Rift Valley leaving the rich green hill country of Kenya and entering Sudanese airspace। Landing in Khartoum that day for the third time in as many weeks, our mission was the same as it would be later in the day in Addis Ababa: meet with the head of state and urge him to further the cause of peace, famine relief, and human rights in his country। Back in Nairobi we had been working with negotiating teams on efforts to conclude preliminary negotiations between Ethiopia and Eritrea, while we were preparing to begin negotiations between the government of Sudan and the Sudanese People's Liberation Army. Leaving our mediation support team and the warring parties in Kenya, today's shuttle between the capitals of these three countries would mean on-board breakfast, lunch and dinner, and an intense schedule for President and Mrs. Carter and for us. In some ways our trip was a welcome interlude from the minute-by-minute frustrations of nudging the parties to agreement. On the other hand, the flights over the parched Sudanese landscape and the rich farm lands of Ethiopia served to emphasize the senseless starvation and the suffering on the ground. Landing again in Nairobi that evening after 10 o'clock, we prepared ourselves for the day ahead. Hardly pausing to savor the agreements we had received from Presidents el-Bashir and Mengistu regarding famine relief, we prepared for the eighteenth day of peace-seeking and the tedious formulations of keeping the parties at the table and working to end the suffering we had just flown over. Departing the aircraft, there was again the feeling of somber responsibility as well as the excitement of our task. Peace is a process, conceived in the mind and felt by the heart. Dayle E. Spencer William J. Spencer

What the world is lacking!

I think the world needs to create more opportunities for peaceful change by helping people work together to manage their differences. The world needs to work harder in spreading the skills for dealing with conflicts through peaceful means, which, in turn, will save lives, strengthens communities, promotes human rights, supports the growth of civil societies, and fosters economic development.

Waging Peace in Southern Sudan

Faces around the room light up as hands streak into the air. After more than 20 years of war between northern and southern Sudan, participants in this training are excited to be talking about peace.

CRS is training government representatives and other community leaders in southern Sudan on how to resolve conflicts peacefully. Photo by Debbie DeVoe/CRS
"We southerners are really suffering, during the war and up to now," says the Honorable Agnes Odwar, a member of parliament for Torit County. "We're now learning how to bring peace to our people, families and communities."
Over eight months, Catholic Relief Services brought 40 participants together from across southern Sudan for five week-long workshops. The goal was simple: increase community leaders' ability to peacefully resolve conflicts over the long term. Using these new skills, however, is a significant challenge.
Although the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) signed in 2005 ended 22 years of civil war, peace in the south is fragile. Local conflicts—such as cattle raids, militia activity and tension over sharing scarce resources—remain common. Also imperiling the peace are highly charged national issues, including delays in implementing the CPA and the upcoming vote in 2011 on self-determination for South Sudan and Abyei, a highly sensitive, oil-rich border area still under dispute.
"Representatives from Abyei and 9 of the 10 southern states—including state directors of the South Sudan Peace Commission—attended this training," notes Paul Nantulya, CRS' peacebuilding program manager in southern Sudan. "Community leaders experienced in advanced peacebuilding techniques are now available across southern Sudan to mediate conflicts. This is an incredibly exciting and promising development."
Breaking the Cycle of Violence
After more than 20 years of war, a culture of violence has become part of society in southern Sudan.

Strategies for Trauma Awareness and Resilience teaches participants to peacefully resolve conflict over the long term. Photo by Debbie DeVoe/CRS
"Communities need to learn how to foster peace, but current conditions make this difficult," explains Anisia Achieng, a CRS peacebuilding officer. "Families are still displaced, people have easy access to arms, and tough living conditions make some people desperate."
Fortunately, the government of South Sudan has set up the South Sudan Peace Commission. This body is tasked with promoting peace and reconciliation across the 10 southern states and has established local peace commissions at the state, county and community levels. The hope is that peace commission staff will identify problems before they turn violent and help parties in conflict resolve their differences.
CRS projects also help promote peace across the region. A key activity is an extensive leadership training program presented in partnership with Eastern Mennonite University (EMU). Known as the Strategies for Trauma Awareness and Resilience (STAR) program, the training teaches participants to peacefully resolve conflict over the long term—an essential skill in volatile post-conflict environments.
Just when CRS and EMU were beginning the training program in southern Sudan, the government began appointing peace commission directors for each state. These directors were invited to join the workshops, as were the paramount chief and another traditional elder from Abyei. In the end, government representatives, elected officials, elders, parish priests and peacebuilding officers from local nonprofits all came together from across the region to learn conflict mitigation and leadership skills.
Peaceful Approaches to Conflict
Meeting five times between August 2007 and April 2008, the STAR participants explored five principles that form the foundation of a peaceful, healthy society: security, conflict transformation, justice, trauma healing and identity. In addition, the final workshop focused on developing leadership abilities. Hands-on sessions let participants practice a range of new skills, including active listening, conflict mediation and the ability to see issues from multiple points of view.

Group discussion and hands-on practice ensure skills are relevant and practical. Photo by Debbie DeVoe/CRS
"[Other] trainings only touch one or two points of the star. Then they try to solve a problem, and it comes back again," explains Reverend George King, a peacebuilding project officer with Lutheran World Service.
In contrast, the STAR method goes beyond basic conflict resolution to achieve conflict transformation. This involves examining the roots of a problem, analyzing the current situation, determining what's needed for healthy relationships moving forward and ensuring mechanisms are in place to prevent recurrence of the same problem.
For example, villages who raid each other's cattle typically reconcile by sitting down together. They come up with a peace agreement and sanctify it through a traditional ceremony, such as killing a bull or goat. Peace holds for a month or two, but then another raid occurs.
Conflict transformation takes resolution a few steps further. When communities sit down, they also examine the root causes of the conflict—limited grazing land, for example—and ensure the peace agreement addresses these issues as well. Communities also agree to have traditional local peace committees and new peace commission staff regularly monitor the agreement to prevent repeat outbreaks.
Such transformation doesn't happen overnight, however—one of the reasons the training program spanned eight months. This extended timeframe gave STAR participants time to reflect on new approaches to peacebuilding. Participants were also able to test and refine skills in the field between sessions, breaking into three groups to identify and resolve a conflict in Ikotos, Torit and Abyei.
"The training has affected my life so much and even helped me to understand myself better," Reverend King adds. "I can see a problem from a different angle. I don't address you; I address the problem."
Personal Learning for Communal Impact
While the training prepares participants to use conflict transformation and peacebuilding skills professionally in their communities, attendees also go through their own personal journey of healing. Most participants lost family members and friends during the civil war. Many were also forced to flee Sudan for years, even being separated from their husbands and children.

Forty participants from across southern Sudan graduated as "Leaders in Peacebuilding" in April 2008. Photo by Debbie DeVoe/CRS
"The trauma in me has been released," notes Beatrice Omony Ogak, director of child welfare for the ministry of social development in the state of Eastern Equatoria. Beatrice's child was killed during an attack by the Lord's Resistance Army, a Ugandan rebel group that sometimes conducts raids in southern Sudan. "I had hatred built up toward the offender, but I wouldn't meet with them," she says. "Now I've forgiven them, and today I've become the example. People expected me to be down, but I raise my head. I now build my future."
"This workshop has made some changes in my life. It's given me some strength and courage and has helped me in solving my neighbor's problems," the Honorable Odwar adds. "Even in my own family, I now have the courage to talk to my husband when having problems."
CRS is expanding STAR training activities in Abyei in hopes of increasing the area's ability to prevent outbreaks of violence over contested issues. The 40 program participants, who graduated as "Leaders in Peacebuilding" in early April 2008, are also continuing their ongoing work to transform southern Sudan into a place that wages peace instead of war.
Debbie DeVoe is CRS' regional information officer in east Africa, based in Nairobi। She recently attended a STAR training in conflict transformation and peacebuilding in Ikotos, South Sudan।

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Authored by Debbie DeVoe who is CRS' regional information officer in east Africa, based in Nairobi. She recently attended a STAR training in conflict transformation and peacebuilding in Ikotos, South Sudan.

Hillary Clinton: South Sudan referendum is 'time bomb'

The referendum on independence for Southern Sudan is a "ticking time bomb", US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said.
The vote is due in January and Mrs Clinton said the outcome was "inevitable" - backing for secession.
She called on Sudanese and international leaders to do more to prepare for the poll.
Sudan: Country at a crossroads

The referendum was part of a 2005 peace deal to end two decades of conflict between the north and oil-rich south.
Mrs Clinton observed that the north was unlikely to welcome the prospect of losing its share of oil revenues from the south but said the south's leaders must make "some accommodations" with the north "unless they want more years of warfare".
Southern Sudan, where most people are Christian or follow traditional religions, is already semi-autonomous and is run by the SPLA former rebels, who fought the Muslim-dominated, Arabic-speaking north until the 2005 deal.
US President Barack Obama is to attend a special UN meeting on Sudan's future on 24 September, his ambassador to the UN, Susan Rice, announced.
She said Mr Obama saw the meeting "as a very important vehicle for focusing international attention" on the referendum ahead of the "last critical 100 days before that vote".

There have been numerous warnings that the region, one of the world's least developed areas, is not ready to hold the referendum.
Voter registration has not started, and the question of who exactly will be allowed to vote has not been decided.
Last week the two sides finally agreed after months of wrangling on who should head the body in charge of organising the referendum.
"The time frame is very short. Pulling together this referendum is going to be difficult," Mrs Clinton said after giving a speech on the subject to the Council on Foreign Relations.
"But the real problem is, what happens when the inevitable happens and the referendum is passed and the south declares independence. What happens to the oil revenues?"
The Southern Sudanese authorities last month launched a competition to compose a new national anthem for the region.

Kenya: Why the Yes Vote Will Force a Radical Change in Country's Risk Rating

9 August 2010
Nairobi — Foreign businessmen in Europe and the US who have committed billions of dollars to the Kenyan economy went to bed on Tuesday night with major doubts in their mind.
There was, after all, a high chance that violence would break out if Kenyans voted for the new Constitution and major newspapers around the world had warned their readers over the weekend about this gloomy expectation.
However, they awoke on Wednesday morning to the sobering reality that there would be no violence in Kenya - meaning that they were assigning a punitively high political risk rating to the country.
With Kenyan politics now showing strong signs of stabilising and the country taking significant steps with the passing of the Constitution that could quicken the pace of consolidating democracy, investors will in the next few months be forced to radically reassess their risk models.
It is a path Kenya was expected to pioneer two years ago, but failed with major consequences. Ghana, with its peaceful elections last year, set the pace and Kenya's peace referendum puts it in the league of emerging democracies in Africa.
If the level of global optimism persists, it could see a new wave of rising foreign investment flows into Kenya leading to a major strengthening of the shilling and the emergence of a bull market in the equity and property markets.
This realignment of risk will affect both investment portfolios held by foreign institutional investors and major firms that have either scaled down or held back their involvement in Kenya as the country fell out of favour with politicians in the West because of its bad politics and governance issues.
Over the past eight years, more so after the 2008 political violence, Kenya has ranked consistently among the basket cases in the influential Failed States Index compiled by Foreign Affairs magazine and the Carnegie Foundation's Fund for Peace.
In the 2010 rankings, Kenya dropped to position 13, sitting at the bottom with neighbours Somalia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan and Chad.
This ranking was in the same league as Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Freedom House, an organisation that specialises in promoting democracy, ranked Kenya among what it calls "partially free" nations.
In the world of a human-rights activists sitting in Washington, there seems to be no difference in perception of whether Kenya in 2010 is a failed state in the same league as Somalia or Afghanistan, but these rankings shape the perception of trustees of pension funds making decisions over whether to put their money in KCB shares or HSBC in Hong Kong.
The questions that are likely to occur when judging the Kenyan situation as an investment case is how much longer Western firms can continue missing out on opportunities as Brazil, India, Russia, China and South Africa, the so-called Brics nations, continue making inroads into the continent.
Why would Bric nations have a better perception of risk when it comes to Africa? A lot of it comes down to the fact that these countries have shared experience in their development path with African nations.
Indeed, some of them have political systems that are not judged as democracies and their managers know well how to operate in these environments.
Political risk ranking is important in a world where investors have to take decisions on where to invest billions of dollars every year based on how they and a small group of rating agencies perceive the political risk in a country.
A poor judgment of risk could see the entire investment lost in conflict countries or conversely, a major investment opportunity missed.
As managers and diplomats from Europe and North America struggle to understand the rapidly shifting political fortunes in Africa, Russia, India and Brazil have capitalised on this uncertainty with their firms investing billions of dollars in Africa.
Firms from these countries have invested close to $100 billion here since 2003.
In the past few months, Bharti Airtel made a splash by buying Zain's mobile phone operations in Africa for $10 billion.
Other Indian firms like Essar and Reliance are also making major investments on the continent.
Chinese firms have been investing heavily in the energy, mining and construction sectors.
However, as much as the adventurism of Chinese and Indian firms has continued to receive a lot of attention, attitudes among Western firms are starting to shift as witnessed in the emergence of a strong private equity sector in sub-Saharan Africa.
According to data compiled by the Emerging Markets Private Equity Association, sub-Saharan Africa attracted $1 billion in the first half of 2010, bringing the total investment in the sector so far to $1.9 billion.
Of the 10 funds that succeed in raising money through mid-year, only three were country-dedicated (two for South Africa, one for Angola).
The balance of funds are focused on regional strategies, most with footprints spanning a handful of markets.
Most are generalist in strategy, but it is expected that the focus sectors will continue to be energy and natural resources, financial services, and consumer goods & services.

Kenya not out of the woods yet

Kenya has endorsed a new constitution that seeks to unite the country, but it will take much more to ensure ethnic harmony, especially in Rift Valley region, where thousands were displaced in the election less than three years ago। "I cannot forget or forgive," said a resident of Naka camp in Yamumbi, near Eldoret, the main town in Rift Valley. "I came here naked after they took everything. In 1992 [when another election led to violence], they chased my father and took 10 acres [4ha] of our land." Asked if he thought a new law could help the local communities to move on, the man, who requested anonymity, said: "Only God has the power to forgive." Naka camp, which houses 870 people on 0.3ha, is home to members of the Kikuyu community who fled their homes in Nandi and Kapsabet districts during the 2007-08 post-election violence. The road to the camp meanders past lush maize fields that have grown over the remains of the occasional home that was destroyed. Most of the owners have never returned, with some choosing instead to rent houses in nearby townships. "Most of the people here were squatters or tea estate workers, and now have nowhere to go," camp chairman Reuben Kinyua told IRIN on 4 August, when the country voted on the new constitution. "We are waiting for government to relocate us, but it is taking too long. Now the population is too big for the camp, and life is getting increasingly difficult, especially for the children." Across the country, say aid workers, more than 300,000 people were displaced from their homes while 1,100 died after the disputed 2007-08 elections. Tens of thousands still remain in 19 camps, with Mawingu in the Rift Valley district of Nyahururu accommodating 3,000 households. "A lot of work has been undertaken to try and heal the communities," Eldoret South District Commissioner Alex Olenkoyo told IRIN at Gitwe school in Langas ward. "At the height of the violence, about 76,000 people were displaced here. In February 2009, that reduced to 47,000 IDPs [internally displaced persons] living in 21 camps here. Now, we are down to about 500 households. The peace committees in the communities have been effective, although some tension still exists, especially over land." Land tensions A local resident in Eldoret town told IRIN the tensions would continue until the land question was fully addressed. "We do not have enough land for ourselves," he said, requesting anonymity. "But there is enough land in Kenya for all of us - only if everybody could go back [to] where they came from." Laying the blame on Kenya's immediate post-colonial government, he added: "We have nothing personal against anybody, but we feel communities that were brought to occupy our land should be returned to their regions of origin. That way tensions will cease." Those tensions raised fears that violence could break out again during the 4 August vote. The advocacy group, Peacenet, identified 29 "hot spots", mainly in Rift Valley and Western provinces, amid reports that some communities were being threatened and people had already started leaving their homes. At least 15,000 extra police were deployed to the region to ensure peace, backed up by helicopters. The Interim Independent Electoral Commission, through its chairman Issack Hassan, warned that Kenya could not afford a repeat of 2008. "Given what happened last time, some people said it is better to move away till it is over," Information Minister Samuel Pogishio told IRIN in Eldoret. "But it was a small thing based on fear and driven by past experiences. Many of those leaving did not even carry all their belongings, meaning they expected to return soon." Election day passed largely peacefully, with one incident recorded in the "hot spot" Kuresoi area of North Rift Valley, where an unoccupied grass-thatched house was set ablaze on the eve of the vote. As voting progressed, the Kenya Red Cross Society (KRCS), which deployed a large number of volunteers across the region, said earlier fears of violence had not come to pass. "We have not seen movements that could cause alarm," Patrick Nyongesa, KRCS regional manager for North Rift, told IRIN. "There was general fear and a few people left. In Cheptiret, tension was sparked by rivalry between two boys, one Luhya and the other Kalenjin, over a girl. The matter was sorted out and all is calm." "National renewal" Rift Valley region voted largely against the new constitution, but about 70 percent of those who cast their votes nationally supported it, according to results released by the interim electoral commission on 5 August. "I voted for a new constitution because it is a new beginning for our country," said Margret Wanjiku, one of several displaced farmers living in Eldoret town, told IRIN after casting her vote. "I hope it can help the IDPs." Most support came from Nyanza, Northeastern and Central regions, where key political and other leaders backed the new constitution. "The historic journey that we began over 20 years ago is now coming to a happy end," President Mwai Kibaki said in an address to the nation on 5 August. "Let us all join hands together to as we begin the process of national renewal under the new constitution." The document upholds human dignity, equity, social justice, human rights, non-discrimination and the protection of those who are marginalized. It obliges the state to address the needs of vulnerable groups, and calls for measures to redress any disadvantage suffered by individuals or populations because of past discrimination. It also stipulates the right to adequate housing and reasonable shelter, and freedom from hunger. A date for the promulgation of the new document is to be announced. In the meantime, the interim electoral commission will publish the referendum results in 14 days. After the promulgation, parliament will be prorogued while top leaders will be required to take fresh oaths of office. In three months, parliament will form committees to implement the new law while another commission like the Judicial Service Commission will be set up. According to Solomon Dersso, senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies in Addis Ababa, the new document will introduce some important changes in Kenya. It cuts the power of the president, beefs up the oversight role of parliament, vests the judiciary with the power of judicial review and introduces important checks and balances. It also seeks to devolve power away from the centre to the regions, creating two levels of government: national and county. Most importantly, it also promises to deal with the most contentious issue of land, and attempts to restructure various institutions, such as the Electoral Commission. Words of warning However, despite the upbeat mood across the nation, some leaders urged caution. "You cannot just go and tell people 'live together nicely, now forgive each other' when in fact somebody lost his parents or lost his land or business and yet nothing has been done about it," Bethuel Kiplagat, chairman of the Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission, told Reuters AlertNet. "We have to approach it through the healing of the individual and communities. If nothing is done about them - an acknowledgement, counselling, reparations - I am afraid the seeds of the next conflict are dormant, waiting to explode again."
IRIN

Land slide victory expected for Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame

I was recently in Rwanda for three days (from July 19 to July 22, 2010) to cover the President Paul Kagame’s presidential campaigns ahead of the August 10 general election. But from what I gathered on the ground, the man has a fanatical following. The man is just loved by the Rwandans. Contrary to international media reports that he is frustrating his opponents, and that he is oppressing his opponents, the situation is totally different on the ground!!!

Elections will be free and Rwanda will not go Kenyan way-Kagame

By Francis Mureithi

President Paul Kagame says he will not let Rwanda plunge into post election chaos similar to the one witnessed in Kenya 2007.

With less than 16 days left before the Rwandans go to vote, Kagame who heads the ruling Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF) has declared to the world that he has no intention of clinging to power incase any of the three opponents trounce him.

Challenging Kagame in the August 10 presidential elections are Jean-Damascene Ntawukuriryayo, the deputy speaker running for the Social Democratic Party, as well as Prosper Higiro, of the Liberal Party and Alvera Mukabaramba from the Party of Progress and Concord.

“If the people of Rwanda decide I should not continue, I will respect their decision 110 percent, take it from me,” Kagame said during a media conference in his Presidential office in Kigali barely hours before he kicked off his three-week official campaign.

“I have no doubt that these elections will be conducted in a free, fair and stable manner. We are going to keep our piece. There will be piece even after elections,” said the humble and easily accessed president.

But chances of any of the three opponents beating Kagame are extremely slim. The opposition is too feeble and hardly seen hunting for votes.

With only days left, no campaign poster of any of the opposition candidates is seen in the entire Kigali. None of the opposition candidates, or agents, was seen or heard campaigning during my three days stay in Kigali.

Kagame, 52 and who has ruled Rwanda since his RPF ended the 1994 genocide by the Hutu majority against his Tutsi minority, is expected to win with a landslide.

At Amahoro national stadium where he launched national campaigns, tens-of-thousands of his jubilant supporters sang and danced, their faces clearly betraying where their loyalty lies.

The almost fanatical support of Kagame was also displayed during his second day of campaigns in Rulindo and Gakenke in northern Rwanda some 50 kilometres from Kigali.

A number of groups, including the American based Human Rights Watch as well as the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda Rwandan, rebel group based in the Democratic Republic of Congo have accused President Kagame of running a campaign of terror against his opponents.

But Kagame vehemently denies this claim, accusing foreigners of meddling with Rwanda affairs and attempting to decide for the Rwandese. He blames political detractors for soiling the image of his administration and that of his country.

“People who complain about Rwanda have never been in the country or cared to learn what is happening on the ground,” stated Kagame when asked if he was crumping on opposition.

To him, he has created an environment for the opposition to uplift itself, an opportunity he sees as wasted by those in the opposition.

“My job has not been to create opposition. Maybe one day I will be in the opposition one day, but as long as I am not in opposition, my job is not to create it,” he adds.

On June 14, deputy leader of one the opposition parties, the unregistered Green Party of Rwanda was murdered 8 days ago.

Andre Kagwa Rwisereka's body was found in the early hours on the banks of River Mukura near the border with Burundi, about 1km from where his Toyota pick-up was abandoned.

On June 24, a Rwandan journalist was shot dead by unknown assailants as he returned to his home in Kigali. Jean Leonard Rugambage, was the deputy chief editor of "Umuvugizi" newspaper, which was suspended for six months by the country's statutory Media High Council in April.

Some quarters have linked the death to a story Rugambage published on "Umuvugizi"'s online edition, which alleged that Rwandan security operatives were behind last month’s assassination attempt on exiled former Rwanda Army Chief of Staff Lt. General Kayumba Nyamwasa in South Africa.

Feuding questions from journalists from the East African Community, Kagame denied any involvement of his RPF party in the killings either directly or indirectly.

“What would be the reason to kill somebody from Green Party. He was not even the leader of the party. Why should my government kill a journalist as if there is something I am going to gain from,” said Kagame.

“You will probably not be here is there was such crampness,” states Kagame when asked if his party was muzzling the press.

“Journalist from the region or internationally work comfortably here, yet you claim that there is a clampdown. The country has invested to ensure every citizen has access to information to express themselves freely. Other journalists except Rwandese claim that. People spreading the rumors don’t live here and yet write stories,” says the President.

The President has cited rapid infrastructure development during his presidency, improved health care and peace across Rwanda as the key reasons why the people of Rwanda should vote for his come voting day.

‘There are those self appointed spokesmen who live abroad and create impressions that are non existent. Voters will express their stand on a number of issues. Rwanda has made its commitment, dedication and determination to shape its own future. They feel they own others and want to speak for them,” he says.

Ends/..

COULD UGANDA HAVE PREVENTED THE TERRORIST ATTACKS?

On July 11, Uganda capital Kampala capital rocked by co-ordinated bomb blasts which targeted people gathered to watch the World Cup final. At least 76 people were killed and Somali Islamists Al-Shabab quickly claimed it was responsible for the attacks.
The blasts came two days after a commander with the Somali group, Al-Shabab, called for militants to attack sites in Uganda and Burundi, two nations that contribute troops to the African Union peacekeeping force in Somalia.


But what did Uganda’s intelligence units do regarding this vital information that was carried on October 23rd, 2009?

Al-Shabaab: We Will Attack Uganda and Burundi
Islamist rebel group and al-qaeda proxy in Africa, al-shabaab, has threatened to attack the capitals of Burundi and Uganda in retaliation of what they say are attacks by peacekeepers in these countries which killed over 30 people in Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia. In a statement, Sheikh Ali Mohamed Hussein, a senior al Shabaab commander, said “We shall make their people cry. We’ll attack Bujumbura and Kampala; we will move our fighting to those two cities and we shall destroy them,”
The African Union’s (AU) AMISOM force in the Somali capital is made up of contingents from across Africa; and Burundi and Uganda both have 2,500 peacekeepers taking part in operations there. AIMSOM’s spokesman in Mogadishu, Major Barigye Ba-hoku said “Al Shabaab wants to drag us into their war; they shell us and then they also shell Bakara, then they tell people there it was AMISOM who killed civilians. We know their tactics.” “We do not take their threats lightly,” Ba-hoku said. He also said that “Any attempt to attack Burundi or Uganda will be met with decisive action and will be defeated.
(So is Uganda equal to task?)
*********************************************************
And what is Uganda, Burundi and even Kenya doing regarding the following crucial information? That came to light on July 15, 2010?
Kampala attacks just a beginning , warns Somali Islamist Al Shabaab leader


English.news.cn 2010-07-15 15:29:35

MOGADISHU, July 15 (Xinhua) -- The spiritual leader of the radical Islamist group in Somalia which claimed responsibility for the deadly Sunday twin attacks in the Ugandan capital Kampala on Thursday said the assault was "just a prelude."
In an audio tape posted on website of Islamist group of Al Shabaab, the Emir of the Islamist movement, Sheikh Muqtar Abdelrahman Abu Zubeyr, reiterated the movement's accusation of the African Union (AU) peacekeeping forces in Mogadishu of committing "massacres" against the people in Mogadishu.
Al Shabaab, which is fighting Somali government and AU forces in Mogadishu, claimed responsibility for the twin attacks over the weekend in Kampala which left almost 76 people dead and many more injured. "The incident in Kampala is just a prelude," said the reclusive leader of the Somali militant group that controls much of south- central of the Horn of African nation.
He congratulated the Islamist fighters who carried out the Kampala attack saying they were "honored" to carry out the deadly operation in Kampala. He called the group behind the attacks as "the Salah Nebhan Brigade" after the most senior foreign member of the Al Shabaab.
Nebhan, a Kenyan-born senior Al Qaeda figure, was killed last year after U.S. helicopters strafed a vehicle he was travelling in near the southern Somali town of Barawa. Abu Zubeyr claimed that the AU peacekeeping mission troops in Mogadishu known as AMISOM, of which Uganda and Burundi are the only contributing countries, have committed "worse massacres" in Mogadishu allegedly than the U.S. as well as Ethiopia whose troops withdrew early last year after two year presence in Somalia. "The so-called AMISOM have committed worse massacres in Mogadishu than the ones previously committed by the Ethiopians and the Americans."
The Islamist leader who has never been seen in public since assuming leadership of the movement in 2008 after the death of the former head, vowed to continue avenging against Uganda and Burundi.

Uniting against terrorism across the Sahara

Seven governments in the Sahara-Sahel region are combining efforts to counter terrorist groups, such as Al Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, which took credit for bombing of the UN headquarters in Algiers in December 2007 (above), an act that claimed the lives of 17 UN personnel. .
Photograph: UN / Evan Schneider
For countries bordering the Sahara Desert, terrorist attacks continue to pose “real threats,” says Algerian Foreign Minister Mourad Medelci. The menace, he adds, is compounded by the fact that terrorist groups often have ties with organized crime, including drug and arms traffickers who operate across the region’s remote and poorly controlled frontiers. To face the challenge, Mr. Medelci says, African countries must not only better coordinate their actions against terrorism and crime, but also improve the living conditions of the poorest people.
One sign of growing cooperation against terrorism among governments in the region was a 16 March meeting in Algiers between Mr. Medelci and the foreign ministers of a half dozen other countries — Burkina Faso, Chad, Libya, Mali, Mauritania and Niger — all of which border the Sahara and the semi-desert region to its south known as the Sahel. The following month, the military chiefs of the seven countries also met in Algiers, specifically to coordinate their security actions.
The ministers and generals were spurred on by fresh reminders in recent months of the seriousness of the problem: the seizure of several European and African hostages in Mauritania and Mali, an attack on a military post in Niger that cost the lives of five Nigerien soldiers and an ambush in the Kabylie region of Algeria that killed seven security guards. Most actions have been claimed by Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), known for its dramatic bombing of the UN offices in Algiers in December 2007. Although it is a predominantly Algerian dissident group, it also includes fighters from other countries and operates throughout the region.
Groups using terrorist methods have emerged elsewhere in Africa as well, including in East Africa and Somalia. Recognizing that terrorism has emerged as a continental problem, the African Union (AU) has developed a Plan of Action on the Prevention and Combating of Terrorism in Africa. In addition to law enforcement measures, it emphasizes the need for governments to reduce poverty, deprivation and marginalization, which can foster discontent and be used by terrorist groups to recruit followers and justify violence.
In late April, AU Commissioner for Peace and Security Ramtane Lamamra reaffirmed the organization’s commitment to the struggle against terrorism. Noting that AQIM and other groups have seized hostages and demanded money or political concessions for their release, he urged governments to refrain from paying ransoms, as it may encourage yet further kidnappings. Fighting terrorism, Mr. Lamamra said, must include “refusing to cede to the blackmail of terrorist groups.”
The issue of how to deal with hostage-taking has stirred some controversy. A couple weeks before the Algiers meeting, a court in Mali released four suspected AQIM fighters, prompting AQIM to free a French citizen who had earlier been kidnapped in northern Mali. Both Algeria and Mauritania protested the release of the AQIM suspects (two were Algerian and one was Mauritanian).
The Algiers meeting took up the topic. All seven governments agreed to abide by an AU decision in July 2009 to condemn the payment of ransom to terrorist groups, as well as to enforce a December 2009 UN Security Council resolution that criminalizes any payments to listed terrorist individuals and organizations.
The ministers recognized that terrorist activities, especially in conjunction with crossborder trafficking in drugs, arms and persons, are “a threat and a factor of instability for the entire region, and pose an obstacle to socio-economic development.” By acting together, they affirmed, it would be possible to “restore to the Sahelian-Saharan region its role as an area of trade, peace, stability and productive cooperation.”
The ministers agreed on action in a number of specific areas:
Strengthening bilateral and regional cooperation to maintain the region’s peace, security and socio-economic development,
Pursuing programmes for sustainable development to improve people’s living conditions, and especially to ensure the social and economic integration of young people,
Combating terrorism and criminality by winning the support of local populations,
Developing an integrated anti-terrorism approach by governments, regional organizations and the international community,
Bolstering judicial cooperation and the monitoring of illicit financial flows, and
Improving coordination among the military high commands of the seven countries.
In April, the Algerian army launched a major operation against several hundred suspected AQIM fighters in that country. Then on 13 April the military chiefs of the seven countries met in Algiers. According to General Ahmed Gaïd Salah, the Algerian army chief of staff, he and his counterparts agreed to establish a security information coordination centre in Tamanrasset in southern Algeria and to step up joint monitoring of their borders to crack down on terrorists, smugglers and drug traffickers.
By addressing the region’s security challenges, General Salah said, it would make it easier for “our respective political authorities to devote themselves to the task of economic and social development for the benefit of our peoples.”
– Africa Renewal online
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Somali refugees face dangers and obstacles on their flight to safety

2 July 2010
This is a summary of what was said by UNHCR spokesperson Adrian Edwards – to whom quoted text may be attributed – at the press briefing, on 2 July 2010, at the Palais des Nations in Geneva.
Despite the continuing deterioration in Somalia's security and humanitarian environments our latest data is showing that the flow of refugees into most neighbouring countries has decreased considerably compared to the same period last year.
The numbers of arrivals in Yeman and Kenya – countries which have traditionally borne the brunt of the Somali refugee – are down sharply. In Yemen there were 6,660 new arrivals in the first half of this year, compared to 13,801 in the first half of 2009. In Kenya, arrivals have fallen by a third from 44,385 in the first six months of 2009 to 29,848 in the same period this year.
The reasons for this drop are not safer or more stable circumstances. The situation is worsening and everyday violence and human rights abuses in Somalia continue to displace thousands of civilians. We estimate that more than 200,000 Somalis have been forced to leave their homes this year alone – with most becoming displaced internally.
Due to insecurity and a lack of access to many parts of the country, UNHCR and other humanitarian organisations providing aid are facing great difficulties in reaching the millions of needy.
Those who reach safety abroad speak of a dire situation inside the country. According to newly arrived refugees, it is becoming increasingly dangerous and difficult to flee Somalia. Many displaced civilians are effectively trapped inside the country.
Somalis arriving by boat in Yemen have told us that there are now a dozen checkpoints on the road from Mogadishu to the northern port of Bossaso where many of those trying to flee the country board smugglers boats. These checkpoints are manned by different armed groups.
In Kenya, refugees are telling us they have fled insecurity and indiscriminate fighting between government forces and armed militias. They say it has been difficult to reach Kenya as many fear forced recruitment and abuse along the way. Often there is no transport and, when there is, many cannot afford to pay for the trip to the borders. In addition, the rainy season has made some roads impassable. Some of the refugees arriving in Kenya have been walking for days, resting along the way often without any shelter.
The one regional exception in terms of arrivals is Ethiopia, which has received 12,639 Somali refugees in the first half of 2010 compared to 8,411 in the same period in 2009.
There are now almost 600,000 Somali refugees in the region – some 323,000 in Kenya, another 164,000 were registered at reception centres in Yemen on arrival, and 72,000 in Ethiopia. After Afghanistan and Iraq, Somalia is generating the largest number of refugees in the world. In addition, there are more than 1.4 million people who are internally displaced.

DR Congo: Celebrating 50 years of chaos

Page last updated at 08:17 GMT, Wednesday, 30 June 2010 09:17 UK
By Thomas FessyBBC News, Kinshasa First Congolese President Joseph Kasavubu was ousted in 1965
As the Democratic Republic of Congo celebrates 50 years of independence, President Joseph Kabila wants to use the occasion to overturn his country's image of chaos, endless war and bad governance.
A day before the celebrations, workers were still frantically repainting facades on the main boulevard of the capital, Kinshasa, despite starting the job 18 months ago.
A layer of paint will not give us food and salaries
Kinshasa resident
And when one young man, covered in white paint, knocked on my door requesting access to the balcony, he begged for food as he had not eaten all day.
The Belgian King Albert II, UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon and other African heads of state in town for the anniversary will probably only see these revamped thoroughfares.
But for most residents of Kinshasa, Africa's third largest city, getting electricity and running water would have been a preferable gesture.
"A layer of paint will not give us food and salaries," one Congolese man said about the preparations.
DR Congo is rich in gold, but much of it has been plundered over the years
Once the personal property of the Belgian king, DR Congo - a vast country two-thirds the size of Western Europe with huge mineral wealth - gained independence from Belgium on the 30 June 1960.
Who will ever forget the massacres where so many of our brothers perished?
Patrice Lumumba Independence fighter
At a ceremony in the Congolese capital, then called Leopoldville, then-King Baudoin said, without a hint of irony: "Congo's independence constitutes the outcome of the work initiated by the genius of Leopold II, undertaken by him with a tenacious courage and continued with perseverance by Belgium."
The Belgian monarch did not expect the new charismatic Congolese Prime Minister, Patrice Lumumba, to offer a different view of colonial rule in a speech made on the same day.
"Who will ever forget the massacres where so many of our brothers perished; the cells into which those who refused to submit to a regime of injustice, oppression and exploitation were thrown?" said Mr Lumumba, who was murdered the next year, reportedly with US and Belgian complicity.
Educated elite
Fifty years on, many Congolese are asking whether the years of independence have been any kinder than 80 years of brutal colonial rule.
Lucy Lusumba: "My hair-do is the only event in my life"
In pictures: The DR Congo at 50
Since 1960, DR Congo has only had four presidents - only the first and last democratically elected.
Independence President Joseph Kasavubu was toppled in a coup by then army chief Mobutu Sese Seko in 1965.
Mobutu stayed in power for more than three decades until he was overthrown by rebel leader Laurent-Desire Kabila, who was assassinated in 2001 and his son, Joseph Kabila, took over to lead a peace process and win elections.
Ntanda Nkere, a political scientist at the University of Kinshasa, says education could be seen as one success of the last 50 years, but it has not helped when it comes to leadership.
"When the country became independent, they were only nine people with university degrees. They are probably one million today," he says.
"But there has to be a clear commitment to changing this country. But that commitment is not there yet really," he says.
Eighty-year-old Justin-Marie Mbomboko, who was Congolese foreign minister in 1960, agrees.
"What has destroyed the country is the fact that there's been no political plan for the future," he says.
"Let's talk about mismanagement: Governance is not good. If the country isn't well managed, no matter what regime is in place, the country will fall in ruins."
The army has been accused of human rights abuses
The many ordinary Congolese grumbling about the jubilee put it in starker terms.
"Ever since we gained independence, happiness has only been for those close to the man in charge - they eat well and they are well paid. But a large number of people simply suffer," a street vendor in Kinshasa explains.
A woman nearby selling vegetables says: "It is all negative.
"Nothing works. The authorities don't care about the population, children cannot study properly - even human rights are not respected."
Blame game
The former colonial power acknowledges that it left Congo with pretty much no political arena.
It is very ironic: When we became independent, the UN was there to protect us. We celebrate 50 years of independence and the UN is here to protect us
Professor Ntanda Nkere
"We have to recognise that Belgium did a tremendous job during the colonial period but we haven't produced sufficient elite to run the country," Belgium's Kinshasa ambassador Dominique Struye says.
"But it's also now up to Congo to take up its full responsibility and not always find an excuse in the past not to run their country properly."
The Congolese authorities also say they do not want to play the blame game.
"After 50 years of independence we are adult people. It's not the time to recall what happened during the colonial rule," Foreign Minister Alexis Thambwe Mwamba told the BBC.
"Fifty years later, we cannot say that if things are not going well in Congo, it's the fault of Belgium or of Leopold II," he says.
And both countries hail the occasion as a turning point their difficult relationship. However, tellingly, King Albert II will make no speech, according to Belgian officials.
His visit also sparked controversy in Belgium particularly when prominent Congolese human rights activist Floribert Chebeya was murdered at the beginning of June.
Cha-cha
Analysts say that there has been a growing trend of repression against opposition members and rights activists since elections in 2006.
Mobutu Sese Seko ruled for more than three decades
After independence a UN force was sent to Congo to help maintain law and order after an army mutiny.
Security still remains a major problem in several provinces, especially in the east, the centre of what has been termed Africa's First World War in the late 1990s.
The country now hosts the biggest peacekeeping mission in the world.
Some blue helmets began a symbolic withdrawal this month even though Congolese security forces, blamed for repeated human rights abuses, are not ready to take over.
"It is very ironic: When we became independent, the UN was there to protect us. We celebrate 50 years of independence and the UN is here to protect us," says Prof Nkere.
"What does that reveal? That nothing has been done for the last 50 years."
Back in 1960, rumba singer Joseph Kabasale, sang the famous Independence Cha-cha - a tune known by all Congolese.
"We've gained independence; at last we are free," it said.
Baloji, a young Congolese-Belgian rapper, has recently adapted Kabasale's independence anthem, calling it "The Day After".
Like many Congolese, he is still waiting to taste the benefits of freedom.

Private sector urged to mirror Kenya’s ethnic diversity

Nairobi, 27th May, 2010 - Kenya’s Private sector has been asked to strive and be at the forefront of mirroring the country’s ethnic diversity in its employment.

National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC) Chairman, Dr Mzalendo Kibunja expressed his organisation’s commitment to working with the private sector towards building a cohesive and harmonious country.

“”It is important for everyone to realise that national cohesion is for all Kenyans because if Kenya burns, then the private sector will not be spared, it will also burn,” said Kibunja, who was addressing a Government Score-card on Agenda 4 and National Cohesion business leaders Forum that was organised by the Kenya Association of Manufacturers (KAM) and supported by the Business Advocacy Fund.

He warned that NCIC will soon start publishing the names of those perpetuating undermined or contributed towards undermining good ethnic relations, or who are involved in ethnic discrimination in the countries leading newspapers “We are planning to start publishing the names of those going against the grain of the nation in terms of spreading tribal animosity. Our ultimate goal as a Commission is to make Kenya a harmonious and united society.”

Speaking during the Forum, South Consultant’s Senior Researcher Mr. Joshua Kivuva expressed regret that threats against potential witnesses in Post Election Violence cases are on increase yet no action is being taken against those involved.

“The absence of a government-led witness protection programme is disillusioning witnesses a lot. There are even reports of some people manipulating witnesses.
This explains why there is a lot of support for prosecution through International Criminal Court (ICC),” said Kivuva.

He noted that the Government’s performance rating on Internally Displaced Persons had greatly improved – from 43 per cent in 2008 to 51 per cent 2010. “There is some improvement in how communities are getting along with others. In 2008 23 per cent reported they had difficulties getting along with others; while only 12 per cent reported this difficulty in February 2010,” he stated, adding that discrimination on the basis of ethnicity is declining.

Kivuva said the Government had made marked improvements with regard to the protection of the rights of the media; giving IDP’s financial support; and respecting human rights. He however noted that Kenyans are still unhappy with the high rates of corruption and the unending political conflicts in the country.

He further said that passing of the Constitution would be a major plus for the Government.

Kibunja warned the local vernacular radio stations against promulgating hate speech which would lead the country back to where it was after the 2007 elections. “We will not allow media stations to continue profiteering from spewing hate speech.”

Kenya on the spot over IDPs

IDPs Kenya
May 19, 2010
By Francis Mureithi
The government has been accused of failing to assess the needs of persons who were displaced during the 2008 post election violence.
Though the government managed to resettle about 200,000 Internally Displaced Persons in the course of 2009, it failed to conduct needs assessment hence violating the rights of most of the IDPs, says a Geneva based international organization.
“During the year, the government made no significant effort to profile or assess the needs of populations displaced by conflict or violence,” the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) has said in a report released on Tuesday titled Global Overview of Trends and Developments in 2009.
IDMC which was established by Norwegian Refugee Council monitors conflict-induced internal displacement worldwide and releases annual reports on every country assessed.
On Kenya, IDMC notes that IDPs who have returned to their homes have been unable to rebuild their lives for lack of proper reconciliation between communities which fought after the disputed 2007 elections.
“The government forced IDPs to return even though the situation that gave rise to their displacement had not been properly addressed,” reads part of the report. The agency says this has prevented progress towards durable solutions to the conflict.
It adds that despite government claims that the majority of IDPs had been resettled, a substantial number were still living in camps and with host communities at the end of 2009.
The report also points out that most of the women IDPs and children were exposed to rape and sexual violence. The centre says the government closed some camps and forced the IDPs to return to their homes yet conditions were not conducive for the displaced to return to their homes.
The report says that Kenya has still a long way to go in finding durable solutions for IDPs, despite ratifying the Pact on Security, Stability and Development in the Great Lakes Region and signing the Kampala Convention in 2009.
The report covers 54 countries, 21 of them being in Africa. In total IDMC says 6.8 million people were forced to flee their homes in 2009, bringing the total number of displaced people around the world to 27.1 million by year-end.
This is the highest figure since the mid 1990s. Eight countries have been cited as where most of the displacements occurred as a result of armed conflict.
They are Pakistan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan, Somalia, the Philippines, Colombia, Sri Lanka and Ethiopia. In Africa alone, there is estimated 11.6 million IDPs representing more than 40 per cent of the world’s total IDP population.
Sudan had the largest internally displaced population in Africa with about 4.9 million IDPs, followed by DRC with 1.9 million and Somalia with 1.5 million.
Ends/..

Kenya on the spot over IDPs

SOMALIA: Puntland helps IDPs integrate, learn skills

NAIROBI, 27 May 2010 (IRIN) - Authorities in Somalia's self-declared autonomous region of Puntland are offering hundreds of internally displaced persons (IDPs) skills training in a bid to integrate the growing influx of displaced, officials said. "We started with 250 people selected from the [IDP] camps and the host community and we are training them for four months," said Mohamed Said, head of DANDOR, a local NGO implementing the training in Bosasso, Puntland's commercial capital. Said told IRIN that 80 percent of the trainees were IDPs and the rest from the host community. "We had to add some members of the host community because some of them are as needy as the displaced." He said subjects included tailoring, welding, plumbing and electrical services, tie-dye and incense-making, some taught by IDPs. In the past 20 years of civil strife in south-central Somalia, thousands of IDPs fleeing the violence have settled in Puntland. There are an estimated 28,000 displaced persons in Bosasso, according to the UN. Tthe participants were selected with the help of the IDPs themselves and Bosasso local authorities. "Of the total number of trainees, 146 are women and 104 are men," Said told IRIN. UN Development Programme Somalia was funding the project. "We will continue and expand depending on funding," he added. Barni Awil Nur has been an IDP in Bossaso for more than three years. The mother of two is learning how to tie-dye clothes and said the training was a "Godsend". Nur said: "I have been here for a long time and I don't know if I am going anywhere else any time soon. This gives me an opportunity to earn my living. I don't have to wash other people's clothes or clean their homes." Abdullahi Ahmed, from Merka, has been in Bosasso for a year. "Until I got this offer to train here, I was a porter in the market. It is not an easy job and you don't always get work. There are too many porters." Ahmed is being trained as a welder. "As soon as I complete the course, I want to start a welding business with some friends." Said of DANDOR said once the trainees complete their training, they will be provided with a starter toolkit to enable them to begin working. Abdulkadir Yusuf Dahir, the deputy mayor of Bosasso, who launched the training, said the city was determined to help integrate the displaced into the community but needed help in doing so. "This training is a good start but we need much more like it if we are going to succeed," Dahir said. He urged aid agencies to help Bosasso deal with the growing influx of displaced by "giving them skills that will enable them to be productive and reduce their dependency on handouts".

27 million people living as IDPs globally

At the end of 2009, the number of people internally displaced by conflict, generalised violence or human rights violations across the world stood at approximately 27.1 million. This figure represented an increase of over a million people compared with the 26 million IDPs estimated for 2008 and also for 2007.
Over half of the world’s internally displaced people (IDPs) were in five countries: Sudan, Colombia, Iraq, DRC and Somalia. The region with most IDPs was Africa, with 11.6 million.
This is according to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) in its 2010 report titled Global Overview of Trends and Developments in 2009.
IDMC which was established by Norwegian Refugee Council monitors conflict-induced internal displacement worldwide and releases annual reports on every country assessed.
In 2009, IDMC monitored internal displacement in 21 African countries. There were an estimated 11.6 million IDPs in these countries, representing more than 40 per cent of the world’s total IDP population. As in previous years, Sudan had the largest internally displaced population in Africa with about 4.9 million IDPs, followed by DRC with 1.9 million and Somalia with 1.5 million.
Internal displacement in 2009 resulted from ongoing internal armed conflict, generalised violence, human rights violations, and inter-communal tensions that flared up over limited natural resources, including between pastoralists and sedentary farmers, and over political, social, and economic advantages.
The highest number of new displacements in 2009 was reported in DRC with over one million new IDPs (the country’s highest rate of new displacement since 2004), followed by Sudan with 530,000, Somalia with 400,000 and Ethiopia with an estimated 200,000. New displacements were also reported in CAR, Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal and Zimbabwe

Ethnicity and polls: Distant drums of war sounded in Sudan

Posted Thursday, April 8 2010 at 14:
The impasse over the April 2010 nationwide elections in Sudan signals a new wave of ethnic regionalism — contrasted with regional integration of states — now frightfully sweeping across Africa and rolling back the gains made in democratisation in recent decades.
Pre-election Sudan faces the risk of joining Cote d’Ivoire, Kenya, Ethiopia, Zimbabwe and other African states where ethno-regionalism in the context of disputed elections has pushed states to brink of collapse.
The clamour for ethnic-based regional autonomy is linked to the worldwide surge of ethnic nationalism — defined by security theorists as the ‘clash of the peoples,’ everywhere and poised to drive the continent’s politics for generations to come.
Ethnic regionalism has become a divisive force tearing African countries apart: Champions of the Ivorite ideology in Cote d’Ivoire attacked ‘Northerners,’ violently splitting the country into warring North-South regions; in Kenya, crusaders of ethnic-based regionalism have divided citizens into ‘native’ and ‘settlers’ as the basis of ethnic cleansing.
In Sudan, entrenched North-South conflict has deep ethnic, racial and religious fault-lines. Over the years, this divide fed the catastrophic 24-year civil war and now it could mar this month’s polls, scuttling the January 2011 referendum on the independence of the South.
A dispute over the participation by the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) in the 11-13 April election, the first nationwide competitive polls since 1986, is heightening ethno-regionalism and separatist sentiments in the South.
The April elections, delayed since 2008, were originally designed to elect a unity government with the mandate to carry out reforms and make unity attractive for the South. This was to replace the power-sharing government agreed on hurriedly by President Omar al-Bashir’s National Congress Party (NCP) and the John Garang’s SPLM following the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in January 2005 in Nairobi, Kenya. Garang died in July 2005 and was succeeded by Salva Kiir as the President of the semi-autonomous Southern Sudan.
The mid-term election is one of the milestones that the CPA devised to prevent Sudan’s fragile peace from breaking down, including referendum on Southern independence in January 2011 and demarcation of the 1956 North-South border.
But over the years, the South’s relations with Khartoum turned frosty over the rescheduling of the 2008 mid-term election which watered down the original purpose. Ahead of the April elections, SPLM has charged that the electoral process has been flawed long before the first ballot is cast, citing manipulation of census results and voter registration, gerrymandered electoral districts, electoral insecurity, restricted access to media and the right to hold rallies and election laws drafted to favour President Bashir’s party.
As a result, SPLM pulled out its candidate, Yassir Arman, from the presidential race, arguing that the on-going conflict and state of emergency in the war-torn western region of Darfur made it “impossible to have free and fair elections.”
However, the SPLM will contest the parliamentary and municipal elections. It is determined to win at least one-third of the seats in the national legislature to frustrate attempts by al-Bashir’s NCP to unilaterally amend the constitution and undermine the referendum. But the ensuing uncertainty has ignited fears of a return to a third civil war.
Raising the stakes the Khartoum regime, which has kept democracy in cold storage since al-Bashir seized power 21 years ago, threatened to call off the crucial January 2011 referendum. But SPLM chief, Vice-President Salva Kiir, insisted that the referendum “has to be conducted whether there are elections in Sudan or not.”
The ruling NCP badly needs a decisive and legitimate victory in the coming elections. This will guarantee its vision of one undivided Sudan and the safety of President Bashir now facing the threat of extradition to the Hague to stand trial for crimes against humanity in Darfur as the first sitting African Head of State to be indicted by the International Criminal Court (ICC).
The party is fighting to win majority seats in the National Assembly to amend the constitution to enable it to influence the outcome of the January referendum, gain powers to declare a state of emergency in the event of war and maintain stranglehold over the oil-rich region that generates billions of dollars in revenue for the North.
The ensuing North-South conflict set off a flurry of diplomatic initiatives particularly by the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the African Union and the international community to halt Sudan’s slide to back to the civil war that claimed some 1.5 million livesExternal initiatives in Sudan are driven by a general fear of election-related violence which has become the bane of democracy in African countries, particularly in Cote d’Ivoire, Madagascar, Zimbabwe and Kenya.
The level of preparation for elections and implementation of the CPA formed the focus of a recent summit of IGAD’s seven member states in March 2010. The meeting committed to undertake shuttle diplomacy to end mistrust and restore confidence between the elites in the North and South of Sudan and to provide technical support towards realising a free and fair election.
During the meeting, the SPLM leader, Salva Kiir, reiterated that “the Southern Sudan referendum is more important than the upcoming elections scheduled in next April and south will defend it at all cost”.
On its part, the African Union hopes that Sudan will stage free and fair elections in April by adhering to the Declaration on the Principles Governing Democratic Elections in Africa and the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (2007). In a March 2010 Agreement, Khartoum promised the African Union that it would uphold these election standards, but as the recent report by the Brussels-based think-tank, the International Crisis Group, Khartoum has already manipulated the electoral process, “resulting in an almost certain victory for the NCP.”
Despite this, the AU has no credible sticks or carrots to ensure that Sudan stages credible elections. In any case, Sudan is not a signatory to the Charter, which has been signed by only 29 countries and ratified by three others: Sierra Leone, Ethiopia and Mauritania.
On their part, Western governments and international election observers have called for ‘minor’ postponement of the election to give the Sudan’s National Election Commission (NEC) adequate time to deliver free and fair elections. But Khartoum has ignored this appeal.
Recently, the United States, United Kingdom and Norway censured Khartoum over “continued administrative and logistical challenges, as well as restrictions on political reforms.” They also insisted that it was essential to hold the January 2011 referendum“irrespective of the outcome of [nationwide] elections.” But China, which has vested interests in Sudan’s oil-wealth, is notably mute.
However, Khartoum’s failure to make unity attractive to Southerners has fostered strong ethno-regional sensibilities in the South, making separation inevitable come the 2011 plebiscite. The African Union and the international community have now recognised this fact, but Khartoum is prepared to break every rule in the book to frustrate the referendum.
The NCP regime has covertly supported private militias to destabilise the South, leading to escalation of inter-tribal violence which has killed 450 people and displaced nearly 60,000 others in 2010.
Khartoum’s vigilante war on the South is aided by escalating South-South tensions over unequal access to resources, poor governance and discontent over the dominance of the majority Dinka. This has raised questions of the South’s own stability after the referendum. It is a paradox that ethno-nationalism that defined the South’s quest for self-determination as a region is emerging as the greatest impediment to the stability of a new Southern Sudan state.
Post-referendum arrangements
Ultimately, regional bodies and their international partners should intensify pressure on Khartoum to halt support for militias in the South and step up South-South dialogue to heal the growing divisions between ethnic groups and political elites in the South. They should also halt the arms race between the two parties to the CPA by stemming the sale of arms and the flow of illegal ones to the possible combatants.
Ethno-regionalism is now poised to triumph over the despotic Sudanese state, but negotiations on post-referendum arrangements should now start in order to resolve the North-South boundary problem and the sharing of the oil wealth within the South to prevent the emerging state in Southern Sudan from falling to the same sword of ethnic nationalism.
Peter Kagwanja is the President of the Africa Policy Institute, a Kenyan academic and a Governance consultant. *Thomas Kimaru is the acting Director of the Southern and Central Africa Project of the Africa Policy
Africa Insight is an initiative of the Nation Media Group’s Africa Media Network Project